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NE at DET — Week 10 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props

DET -2.5 over NE with an over/under of 51.5 · Sunday, 11/15. DET's implied 27.75 points forecast 5.4 red-zone trips; NE projects 3.6. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, every posted player prop with how it has graded this season, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.

Spread

Money

Total

NEPatriots5-4

+2.5open +2.5

+130open +130

O 51.5open 51.5

DETLions6-2

−2.5open −2.5

−155open −155

U 51.5open 51.5

Sun, Nov 159:30 AM ETWeek 10See all 200 props

OverviewNEPatriotsDETLions

Injuries

GAME STATUSFrom this week’s report. Props marked affected may move.Props flagged 1

NENEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS3 out

OUTTreVeyon HendersonRunning Back • Illness⚡ rush yds 26.5

OUTBen BrownCenter • Knee

OUTCarlton Davis IIICornerback • Knee

DETDETROIT LIONS3 out

OUTCade MaysCenter • Ankle

OUTD.J. ReedCornerback • Hip

OUTKerby JosephSafety • Knee

Game environment

What the market expects, and how fast and pass-heavy each team plays.

Team	Exp pts	Season avg	Opp allows	Plays/g	Pass rate	RZ trips
NEPatriots	24.5+1.1 vs avg	23.4	23.6	60.8	55%	3.6projected
DETLions	27.0−0.8 vs avg	27.8	23.0	64.6	57%	5.4projected

Detroit −2.5 with a 51.5 total works out to 24.5 to 27.0. Only Patriots is forecast to beat their season scoring average. Detroit runs 3.8 more plays a game, so more volume for Lions props.

Recent form

The last 9 games against the spread and against the total.

NEPatriotsAgainst the spread–+3.0W−4.5L+3.0W+7.0W−3.5L−7.5L+3.0L−7.0L−3.0 3-5Game totalsU44.5U41.5U46.5O49.5O45.5O43.5O50.5O41.5O44.5 6-3

DETLionsAgainst the spreadL−7.0L+5.5–−7.0L−4.5W−5.5L−3.5W−3.0W−6.5 3-4Game totalsO49.5O54.5O49.5O52.5O55.5U55.5U46.5U50.5 5-3

Best prop spots

The softest spots in each defense, and how the props there have done this season.

Patriots passing vs Detroit

Fire

261pass yds allowed1st most

Most allowedFewest

Drake Mayepass yds 263.5UUUOOUOUO–4-5

Props here 4 over, 5 under

Patriots TEs vs Detroit

Fire

74TE yds allowed3rd most

Most allowedFewest

Props here no results yet

Lions passing vs New England

Hot

232pass yds allowed8th most

Most allowedFewest

Jared Goffpass yds 266.5UOOOU–OUU–4-4

Props here 4 over, 4 under

Line movement

Since open

Game lines

SpreadPatriots+2.5 → +2.5

TotalOver / under51.5 → 51.5

MoneylinePatriots+130 → +130

Biggest prop moves

Player	This week’s prop	Avg	vs line	Weeks 1 to 10	Record
Drake MayeQB	pass yds 263.5 ▲ from 226.5	253.6	−9.9	UUUOOUOUO–	4-5 U
A.J. BrownWR	rec yds 57.5	33.7	−23.8	U––––UU–––	0-3 U
TreVeyon HendersonRB	rush yds 26.5	33.8	+7.3	–OUOUOU–––	3-3
Drake MayeQB	rush yds 25.5	24.2	−1.3	OUUOUUUUU–	2-7 U
TreVeyon HendersonRB	rec yds 7.5	5.5	−2.0	–UUUUOO–––	2-4 U
A.J. BrownWR	receptions 4.5	3.0	−1.5	U––––UU–––	0-3 U

Most allowedFewest

Lions players

OOver UUnder –No line

Player	This week’s prop	Avg	vs line	Weeks 1 to 10	Record
Jared GoffQB	pass yds 266.5 ▲ from 260.5	266.8	+0.3	UOOOU–OUU–	4-4
Jahmyr GibbsRB	rush yds 97.5 ▼ from 98.5	105.9	+8.4	OUOUO–OOU–	5-3 O
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR	rec yds 78.5 ▲ from 75.5	82.1	+3.6	UOUUU–OUO–	3-5 U
Jameson WilliamsWR	rec yds 55.5 ▲ from 52.5	58.5	+3.0	UUUOU–OOU–	3-5 U
Sam LaPortaTE	rec yds 43.5	49.9	+6.4	OOUOO–UUU–	4-4
Jahmyr GibbsRB	rec yds 31.5 ▲ from 29.5	34.5	+3.0	UOOUO–UUU–	3-5 U
Isaac TeSlaaWR	rec yds 20.5 ▲ from 15.5	25.8	+5.3	UOOOU–UUU–	3-5 U
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR	receptions 7.5 ▲ from 6.5	7.6	+0.1	OOUOU–OUO–	5-3 O
Jahmyr GibbsRB	receptions 4.5 ▲ from 3.5	4.2	−0.3	OOOUO–OUU–	5-3 O
Sam LaPortaTE	receptions 4.5 ▲ from 3.5	4.4	−0.1	OOUOO–UUU–	4-4
Jameson WilliamsWR	receptions 3.5	3.5	−0.0	OUOOU–OOU–	5-3 O
Isaac TeSlaaWR	receptions 1.5	1.4	−0.1	UOOOU–UUU–	3-5 U

Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2026 yards per game)

Offense	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
NE passing	49.4	68.1	88.7	54.8
NE rushing	25.2	38.1	26.9	29.6
DET passing	47.1	80.8	75.5	64.8
DET rushing	25.6	29.2	37.6	35.2

Quarter splits computed from nflverse play-by-play — the data this site exists to publish. Deeper cuts: NE offense · DET defense · DET offense · NE defense

Players to watch

NE: Drake Maye (QB, 20.4 proj), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, 12.8 proj), A.J. Brown (WR, 11.7 proj)

DET: Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, 24.3 proj), Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, 19.4 proj), Jared Goff (QB, 18.1 proj)

FAQ

Who is favored in NE at DET in Week 10?

DET is favored by 2.5 points, with an over/under of 51.5.

When do the New England Patriots play the Detroit Lions?

Week 10 of the 2026 season: Sunday, 11/15 (2026-11-15), NE at DET.

Which player props look good in NE at DET?

No posted-line disagreements yet — player props for this game post closer to kickoff; the quarter tendencies on this page are final.

all week-10 previews · week-10 slate · Hit Tracker · Prop Lab

Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games. Updated 2026-11-13.

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