KC at ATL — Week 10 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props
KC -3 over ATL with an over/under of 46.5 · Sunday, 11/15. ATL's implied 19.75 points forecast 3.4 red-zone trips; KC projects 4.1. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, every posted player prop with how it has graded this season, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.
What the market expects, and how fast and pass-heavy each team plays.
Team
Exp pts
Season avg
Opp allows
Plays/g
Pass rate
RZ trips
KCChiefs
24.8−0.4 vs avg
25.2
24.8
60.6
57%
4.1projected
ATLFalcons
21.8+0.9 vs avg
20.9
17.9
58.3
52%
3.4projected
Kansas City −3.0 with a 46.5 total works out to 24.8 to 21.8. Only Falcons is forecast to beat their season scoring average. Kansas City runs 2.3 more plays a game, so more volume for Chiefs props.
Recent form
The last 8 games against the spread and against the total.
KCChiefsAgainst the spreadW−2.5L−6.0W−10.0L−5.5W−7.5L+3.0L+1.5W−9.54-4Game totalsU42.5O46.5U45.5O47.5U41.5U43.5O41.5U47.53-5
ATLFalconsAgainst the spreadL+6.5L+2.5W+4.5W+1.5L−3.5L+1.5W+2.5L+1.5L+3.03-6Game totalsU40.5U43.5O42.5O47.5O44.5O51.5U49.5U42.5U52.54-5
Best prop spots
The softest spots in each defense, and how the props there have done this season.
Chiefs WRs vs Atlanta
Hot
149WR yds allowed6th most
Most allowedFewest
Props here no results yet
Falcons TEs vs Kansas City
Hot
60TE yds allowed8th most
Most allowedFewest
Props here no results yet
Chiefs passing vs Atlanta
Warm
228pass yds allowed13th most
Most allowedFewest
Props here no results yet
Line movement
Since open
Game lines
SpreadChiefs−3.5 → −3.0▲0.5
TotalOver / under45.5 → 46.5▲1
MoneylineChiefs−180 → −180
Chiefs offense vs Atlanta defenseWhat Kansas City gains, and what Atlanta gives up
Points
Warm
25.2Kansas City gains10th
1st32nd
24.8Atlanta allows11th most
Most allowedFewest
Rush yards
Warm
139Kansas City gains5th
1st32nd
120Atlanta allows15th most
Most allowedFewest
Pass yards
Warm
246Kansas City gains10th
1st32nd
228Atlanta allows13th most
Most allowedFewest
Total yards
Warm
385Kansas City gains2nd
1st32nd
348Atlanta allows11th most
Most allowedFewest
Yards to WRs
Hot
109Kansas City gains23rd
1st32nd
149Atlanta allows6th most
Most allowedFewest
EPA per play
Even
0.131Kansas City gains5th
1st32nd
0.002Atlanta allows18th most
Most allowedFewest
Chiefs players
OOver UUnder –No line
No posted props for this team yet.
Falcons offense vs Kansas City defenseWhat Atlanta gains, and what Kansas City gives up
Points
Tough
20.9Atlanta gains23rd
1st32nd
17.9Kansas City allows30th most
Most allowedFewest
Rush yards
Even
138Atlanta gains6th
1st32nd
98Kansas City allows23rd most
Most allowedFewest
Pass yards
Tough
186Atlanta gains25th
1st32nd
211Kansas City allows25th most
Most allowedFewest
Total yards
Tough
324Atlanta gains21st
1st32nd
309Kansas City allows25th most
Most allowedFewest
Yards to WRs
Tough
122Atlanta gains16th
1st32nd
98Kansas City allows30th most
Most allowedFewest
EPA per play
Even
-0.073Atlanta gains25th
1st32nd
-0.067Kansas City allows24th most
Most allowedFewest
Falcons players
OOver UUnder –No line
Player
This week’s prop
Avg
vs line
Weeks 1 to 10
Record
Tua TagovailoaQB
pass yds 206.5
—
—
––––––––––
—
Olamide ZaccheausWR
rec yds 7.5
3.4
−4.1
–UUUU–––U–
0-5 U
Tua TagovailoaQB
rush yds 2.5
—
—
––––––––––
—
Olamide ZaccheausWR
receptions 1.5
0.8
−0.7
–UOUU–––U–
1-4 U
Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2026 yards per game)
Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games.
Updated 2026-11-13.
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