DEN at KC — Week 1 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props
KC -2.5 over DEN with an over/under of 42.5 · Monday, 9/14. KC's implied 22.5 points forecast 4.1 red-zone trips; DEN projects 3.5. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, the posted player props our model disagrees with, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.
Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2025 yards/game)
| Offense | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|
| DEN passing | 40.1 | 73.1 | 47.8 | 66.5 |
| DEN rushing | 24.4 | 18.8 | 29.6 | 33.8 |
| KC passing | 36.7 | 58.2 | 59.9 | 53.1 |
| KC rushing | 33.8 | 35.1 | 41.4 | 41.4 |
Quarter splits computed from nflverse play-by-play — the
data this site exists to publish. Deeper cuts: DEN
offense · KC defense ·
KC offense ·
DEN defense
Posted props our model has an opinion on
| Player | Prop | Our edge | Why |
|---|
| Travis Kelce (KC) | anytime TD Pass | -23.6 | our model prices him at 19% vs the 24-point-dearer market |
Edge = our number minus the posted consensus. Lines move daily — treat as a snapshot.
Players to watch
DEN: Bo Nix (QB, 18.1 proj), Courtland Sutton (WR, 13.4 proj), J.K. Dobbins (RB, 12.6 proj)
KC: Patrick Mahomes (QB, 19.6 proj), Rashee Rice (WR, 18.4 proj), Kenneth Walker III (RB, 12.2 proj)
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