Week 1 games › DEN @ KC

DEN at KC — Week 1 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props

KC -2.5 over DEN with an over/under of 42.5 · Monday, 9/14. KC's implied 22.5 points forecast 4.1 red-zone trips; DEN projects 3.5. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, the posted player props our model disagrees with, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.

Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2025 yards/game)

Offense	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
DEN passing	40.1	73.1	47.8	66.5
DEN rushing	24.4	18.8	29.6	33.8
KC passing	36.7	58.2	59.9	53.1
KC rushing	33.2	31.6	38.5	31.1

Quarter splits computed from nflverse play-by-play — the data this site exists to publish. Deeper cuts: DEN offense · KC defense · KC offense · DEN defense

Posted props our model has an opinion on

Player	Prop	Our edge	Why
Kenneth Walker III (KC)	anytime TD Pass	-17.6	our model prices him at 38% vs the 18-point-dearer market

Edge = our number minus the posted consensus. Lines move daily — treat as a snapshot.

Players to watch

DEN: Bo Nix (QB, 18.1 proj), Courtland Sutton (WR, 13.4 proj), J.K. Dobbins (RB, 12.6 proj)

KC: Patrick Mahomes (QB, 19.6 proj), Rashee Rice (WR, 18.4 proj), Kenneth Walker III (RB, 12.2 proj)

FAQ

Who is favored in DEN at KC in Week 1?

KC is favored by 2.5 points, with an over/under of 42.5.

When do the Denver Broncos play the Kansas City Chiefs?

Week 1 of the 2026 season: Monday, 9/14 (2026-09-14), DEN at KC.

Which player props look good in DEN at KC?

Our model's biggest disagreements with the posted lines: Kenneth Walker III anytime TD Pass (edge -17.6). The full table is on this page.

all week-1 previews · best anytime-TD bet for this game · week-1 anytime-TD rankings

Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games. Updated 2026-09-13.

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