Week 1 games › NYJ @ TEN

NYJ at TEN — Week 1 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props

TEN -3 over NYJ with an over/under of 39.5 · Sunday, 9/13. TEN's implied 21.25 points forecast 3.8 red-zone trips; NYJ projects 3.0. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, the posted player props our model disagrees with, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.

Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2025 yards/game)

Offense	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
NYJ passing	42.9	39.9	40.3	52.8
NYJ rushing	19.9	20.9	21.3	20.4
TEN passing	43.9	47.3	30.5	64.8
TEN rushing	32.6	30.1	20.4	27.5

Quarter splits computed from nflverse play-by-play — the data this site exists to publish. Deeper cuts: NYJ offense · TEN defense · TEN offense · NYJ defense

Posted props our model has an opinion on

Player	Prop	Our edge	Why
Cam Ward (TEN)	pass yds Under 206.5	-20.1	our fair is 186.4 vs the posted 206.5 (DraftKings, -20.1)
Breece Hall (NYJ)	anytime TD Pass	-16.2	our model prices him at 35% vs the 16-point-dearer market

Edge = our number minus the posted consensus. Lines move daily — treat as a snapshot.

Players to watch

NYJ: Garrett Wilson (WR, 14.5 proj), Breece Hall (RB, 13.5 proj), Geno Smith (QB, 12.7 proj)

TEN: Wan'Dale Robinson (WR, 12.8 proj), Tony Pollard (RB, 11.3 proj), Cam Ward (QB, 11 proj)

FAQ

Who is favored in NYJ at TEN in Week 1?

TEN is favored by 3 points, with an over/under of 39.5.

When do the New York Jets play the Tennessee Titans?

Week 1 of the 2026 season: Sunday, 9/13 (2026-09-13), NYJ at TEN.

Which player props look good in NYJ at TEN?

Our model's biggest disagreements with the posted lines: Cam Ward pass yds Under 206.5 (edge -20.1); Breece Hall anytime TD Pass (edge -16.2). The full table is on this page.

all week-1 previews · best anytime-TD bet for this game · week-1 anytime-TD rankings

Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games. Updated 2026-09-13.

Open the live model — any player, any line, all four quarters →

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