NE at SEA — Week 1 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props
SEA -3.5 over NE with an over/under of 44.5 · Wednesday, 9/9. SEA's implied 24 points forecast 4.5 red-zone trips; NE projects 3.6. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, the posted player props our model disagrees with, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.
Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2025 yards/game)
| Offense | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|
| NE passing | 51.9 | 93.6 | 64.5 | 48.5 |
| NE rushing | 37.1 | 30.8 | 27.1 | 22.2 |
| SEA passing | 49.3 | 71.1 | 62.5 | 52.4 |
| SEA rushing | 15.8 | 22.5 | 19.8 | 24.4 |
Quarter splits computed from nflverse play-by-play — the
data this site exists to publish. Deeper cuts: NE
offense · SEA defense ·
SEA offense ·
NE defense
Posted props our model has an opinion on
| Player | Prop | Our edge | Why |
|---|
| Drake Maye (NE) | pass yds Over 221.5 | +19.4 | our fair is 240.9 vs the 221.5 consensus (+19.4) |
| Romeo Doubs (NE) | rec yds Over 36.5 | +9 | our fair is 45.5 vs the 36.5 consensus (+9.0) |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | rec yds Over 90.5 | +4.9 | our fair is 95.4 vs the 90.5 consensus (+4.9) |
Edge = our number minus the posted consensus. Lines move daily — treat as a snapshot.
Players to watch
NE: Drake Maye (QB, 19.2 proj), A.J. Brown (WR, 15.2 proj), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, 12.5 proj)
SEA: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, 19.5 proj), Sam Darnold (QB, 15 proj), Zach Charbonnet (RB, 11.2 proj)
Weekly