Week 1 games › NE @ SEA

NE at SEA — Week 1 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props

SEA -3.5 over NE with an over/under of 44.5 · Wednesday, 9/9. SEA's implied 24 points forecast 4.5 red-zone trips; NE projects 3.6. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, the posted player props our model disagrees with, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.

Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2025 yards/game)

Offense	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
NE passing	51.9	93.6	64.5	48.5
NE rushing	37.1	30.8	27.1	22.2
SEA passing	49.3	71.1	62.5	52.4
SEA rushing	15.8	22.5	19.8	24.4

Quarter splits computed from nflverse play-by-play — the data this site exists to publish. Deeper cuts: NE offense · SEA defense · SEA offense · NE defense

Posted props our model has an opinion on

Player	Prop	Our edge	Why
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)	rec yds Over 81.5	+13.9	our fair is 95.4 vs the posted 81.5 (DraftKings, +13.9)

Edge = our number minus the posted consensus. Lines move daily — treat as a snapshot.

Players to watch

NE: Drake Maye (QB, 19.2 proj), A.J. Brown (WR, 15.2 proj), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, 12.5 proj)

SEA: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, 19.5 proj), Sam Darnold (QB, 15 proj), Zach Charbonnet (RB, 11.2 proj)

FAQ

Who is favored in NE at SEA in Week 1?

SEA is favored by 3.5 points, with an over/under of 44.5.

When do the New England Patriots play the Seattle Seahawks?

Week 1 of the 2026 season: Wednesday, 9/9 (2026-09-09), NE at SEA.

Which player props look good in NE at SEA?

Our model's biggest disagreements with the posted lines: Jaxon Smith-Njigba rec yds Over 81.5 (edge +13.9). The full table is on this page.

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Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games. Updated 2026-09-13.

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