TB at CIN — Week 1 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props
CIN -3.5 over TB with an over/under of 50.5 · Sunday, 9/13. CIN's implied 27 points forecast 5.2 red-zone trips; TB projects 4.3. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, the posted player props our model disagrees with, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.
Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2025 yards/game)
| Offense | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|
| TB passing | 41.4 | 55.2 | 58.4 | 62.3 |
| TB rushing | 25.1 | 27.5 | 32.0 | 25.8 |
| CIN passing | 20.2 | 41.6 | 31.5 | 52.6 |
| CIN rushing | 23.3 | 25.5 | 23.5 | 14.0 |
Quarter splits computed from nflverse play-by-play — the
data this site exists to publish. Deeper cuts: TB
offense · CIN defense ·
CIN offense ·
TB defense
Posted props our model has an opinion on
| Player | Prop | Our edge | Why |
|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | rec yds Over 89.5 | +2.1 | our fair is 91.6 vs the 89.5 consensus (+2.1) |
Edge = our number minus the posted consensus. Lines move daily — treat as a snapshot.
Players to watch
TB: Baker Mayfield (QB, 17.4 proj), Bucky Irving (RB, 14 proj), Chris Godwin Jr. (WR, 11.5 proj)
CIN: Ja'Marr Chase (WR, 20.7 proj), Joe Burrow (QB, 19 proj), Chase Brown (RB, 16.5 proj)
Weekly