Week 1 games › TB @ CIN

TB at CIN — Week 1 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props

CIN -3.5 over TB with an over/under of 50.5 · Sunday, 9/13. CIN's implied 27 points forecast 5.2 red-zone trips; TB projects 4.3. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, the posted player props our model disagrees with, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.

Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2025 yards/game)

Offense	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
TB passing	41.4	55.2	58.4	62.3
TB rushing	25.1	27.5	32.1	25.8
CIN passing	49.3	72.8	55.0	75.1
CIN rushing	23.5	26.2	24.5	14.5

Quarter splits computed from nflverse play-by-play — the data this site exists to publish. Deeper cuts: TB offense · CIN defense · CIN offense · TB defense

Posted props our model has an opinion on

Player	Prop	Our edge	Why
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN)	rec yds Over 89.5	+2.1	our fair is 91.6 vs the posted 89.5 (DraftKings, +2.1)

Edge = our number minus the posted consensus. Lines move daily — treat as a snapshot.

Players to watch

TB: Baker Mayfield (QB, 17.4 proj), Bucky Irving (RB, 14 proj), Chris Godwin Jr. (WR, 11.5 proj)

CIN: Ja'Marr Chase (WR, 20.7 proj), Joe Burrow (QB, 19 proj), Chase Brown (RB, 16.5 proj)

FAQ

Who is favored in TB at CIN in Week 1?

CIN is favored by 3.5 points, with an over/under of 50.5.

When do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play the Cincinnati Bengals?

Week 1 of the 2026 season: Sunday, 9/13 (2026-09-13), TB at CIN.

Which player props look good in TB at CIN?

Our model's biggest disagreements with the posted lines: Ja'Marr Chase rec yds Over 89.5 (edge +2.1). The full table is on this page.

all week-1 previews · best anytime-TD bet for this game · week-1 anytime-TD rankings

Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games. Updated 2026-09-13.

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