BAL at IND — Week 1 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props
BAL -3.5 over IND with an over/under of 49.5 · Sunday, 9/13. IND's implied 23 points forecast 4.2 red-zone trips; BAL projects 5.1. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, the posted player props our model disagrees with, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.
Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2025 yards/game)
| Offense | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|
| BAL passing | 30.8 | 39.3 | 38.6 | 41.2 |
| BAL rushing | 31.8 | 28.5 | 34.2 | 26.3 |
| IND passing | 53.7 | 51.6 | 45.2 | 30.2 |
| IND rushing | 26.4 | 18.7 | 30.1 | 25.7 |
Quarter splits computed from nflverse play-by-play — the
data this site exists to publish. Deeper cuts: BAL
offense · IND defense ·
IND offense ·
BAL defense
Posted props our model has an opinion on
| Player | Prop | Our edge | Why |
|---|
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | rush yds Over 74.5 | +18.8 | our fair is 93.3 vs the 74.5 consensus (+18.8) |
Edge = our number minus the posted consensus. Lines move daily — treat as a snapshot.
Players to watch
BAL: Lamar Jackson (QB, 19.3 proj), Derrick Henry (RB, 17.3 proj), Zay Flowers (WR, 13.8 proj)
IND: Jonathan Taylor (RB, 20.5 proj), Daniel Jones (QB, 16.6 proj), Alec Pierce (WR, 11.6 proj)
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