Week 1 games › BAL @ IND

BAL at IND — Week 1 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props

BAL -3.5 over IND with an over/under of 49.5 · Sunday, 9/13. IND's implied 23 points forecast 4.2 red-zone trips; BAL projects 5.1. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, the posted player props our model disagrees with, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.

Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2025 yards/game)

Offense	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
BAL passing	30.8	39.3	38.6	41.2
BAL rushing	31.8	28.5	34.2	26.3
IND passing	53.7	51.6	45.2	30.2
IND rushing	26.4	18.7	30.1	25.7

Quarter splits computed from nflverse play-by-play — the data this site exists to publish. Deeper cuts: BAL offense · IND defense · IND offense · BAL defense

Posted props our model has an opinion on

Player	Prop	Our edge	Why
Jonathan Taylor (IND)	rush yds Over 78.5	+14.8	our fair is 93.3 vs the posted 78.5 (DraftKings, +14.8)
Derrick Henry (BAL)	rush yds Over 80.5	+20.2	our fair is 100.7 vs the posted 80.5 (DraftKings, +20.2)

Edge = our number minus the posted consensus. Lines move daily — treat as a snapshot.

Players to watch

BAL: Lamar Jackson (QB, 19.3 proj), Derrick Henry (RB, 17.3 proj), Zay Flowers (WR, 13.8 proj)

IND: Jonathan Taylor (RB, 20.5 proj), Daniel Jones (QB, 16.6 proj), Alec Pierce (WR, 11.6 proj)

FAQ

Who is favored in BAL at IND in Week 1?

BAL is favored by 3.5 points, with an over/under of 49.5.

When do the Baltimore Ravens play the Indianapolis Colts?

Week 1 of the 2026 season: Sunday, 9/13 (2026-09-13), BAL at IND.

Which player props look good in BAL at IND?

Our model's biggest disagreements with the posted lines: Derrick Henry rush yds Over 80.5 (edge +20.2); Jonathan Taylor rush yds Over 78.5 (edge +14.8). The full table is on this page.

all week-1 previews · best anytime-TD bet for this game · week-1 anytime-TD rankings

Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games. Updated 2026-09-13.

Open the live model — any player, any line, all four quarters →

Free printable draft sheets — cheat sheet, boom-or-bust sleepers, week-1 schedule

The college wing — Saturday slates with captured lines, every FBS final graded against the spread, quarter box scores

About Weekly Heater · Help & support

llms.txt