WeeklyCompare Players
Pick two players and get the arithmetic, not an opinion: 2025 points per game and median, how often each boomed or busted, the head-to-head weekly record, floor and ceiling, and what changed about their role for 2026. How to use this page ›
- Pick a player on each side. The table fills in immediately and the URL updates, so any comparison is a link you can send.
- The bolder number in each row is the better one. Rows are last season's record, not a projection.
- The sentences under the table are the reasoning, including what changed about each player's role for 2026.
- Scroll down for the close calls at each position, already worked out.
NOT A TAKE.
Already worked out
the pairs people actually argue about, with the arithmeticEach pair below finished next to each other in 2025 scoring at their position, which is where a start-or-sit question is genuinely hard. Open any one to load it in the tool above.
The close calls at RB
adjacent in 2025 scoring — the ones worth arguing aboutJahmyr Gibbs or Christian McCaffrey?too close to call
Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 23.8 points per game this season over 4 games; Christian McCaffrey averaged 23.2 over 4. Their medians were 29.5 and 18.8. They both played in 4 of the same weeks; Gibbs scored more in 4, McCaffrey in 0. On usage, the half that carries forward: Gibbs took 17.6% of his team's targets, McCaffrey 20.2%, and they took 36% and 32% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 0% against 0%, so McCaffrey was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.6 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Christian McCaffrey or Bijan Robinson?too close to call
Christian McCaffrey averaged 23.2 points per game this season over 4 games; Bijan Robinson averaged 22.8 over 4. Their medians were 18.8 and 29.5, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 4 of the same weeks; McCaffrey scored more in 1, Robinson in 3. On usage, the half that carries forward: McCaffrey took 20.2% of his team's targets, Robinson 19.1%, and they took 32% and 28% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 0% against 0%, so Robinson was the steadier weekly hold. Robinson changes quarterback, Cooper Rush to Michael Penix Jr., so his 2025 target pattern may not carry. A 0.4 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Bijan Robinson or Jonathan Taylor?Robinson by 2.8
Bijan Robinson averaged 22.8 points per game this season over 4 games; Jonathan Taylor averaged 20.0 over 5. Their medians were 29.5 and 22.7. They both played in 4 of the same weeks; Robinson scored more in 3, Taylor in 1. On usage, the half that carries forward: Robinson took 19.1% of his team's targets, Taylor 11.4%, and they took 28% and 36% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 0% against 0%, so Taylor was the steadier weekly hold. Robinson changes quarterback, Cooper Rush to Michael Penix Jr., so his 2025 target pattern may not carry.
Jonathan Taylor or Derrick Henry?too close to call
Jonathan Taylor averaged 20.0 points per game this season over 5 games; Derrick Henry averaged 18.8 over 4. Their medians were 22.7 and 19.8. They both played in 4 of the same weeks; Taylor scored more in 2, Henry in 2. On usage, the half that carries forward: Taylor took 11.4% of his team's targets, Henry 6.9%, and they took 36% and 46% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 0% against 0%, so Henry was the steadier weekly hold. A 1.2 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Derrick Henry or De'Von Achane?too close to call
Derrick Henry averaged 18.8 points per game this season over 4 games; De'Von Achane averaged 17.9 over 3. Their medians were 19.8 and 10.6. They both played in 3 of the same weeks; Henry scored more in 3, Achane in 0. On usage, the half that carries forward: Henry took 6.9% of his team's targets, Achane 9.3%, and they took 46% and 0% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 0% against 33%, so Henry was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.9 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
De'Von Achane or Chase Brown?too close to call
De'Von Achane averaged 17.9 points per game this season over 3 games; Chase Brown averaged 17.7 over 5. Their medians were 10.6 and 11.2, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 3 of the same weeks; Achane scored more in 1, Brown in 2. On usage, the half that carries forward: Achane took 9.3% of his team's targets, Brown 15.1%, and they took 0% and 9% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 33% against 0%, so Brown was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.2 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
The close calls at WR
adjacent in 2025 scoring — the ones worth arguing aboutJaxon Smith-Njigba or Ja'Marr Chase?Smith-Njigba by 4.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba averaged 23.8 points per game this season over 4 games; Ja'Marr Chase averaged 19.8 over 5. Their medians were 30.8 and 19.7. They both played in 4 of the same weeks; Smith-Njigba scored more in 4, Chase in 0. On usage, the half that carries forward: Smith-Njigba took 36.5% of his team's targets, Chase 20.4%, and they took 31% and 30% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 0% against 40%, so Smith-Njigba was the steadier weekly hold. Smith-Njigba changes quarterback, Drew Lock to Sam Darnold, so his 2025 target pattern may not carry.
Ja'Marr Chase or Amon-Ra St. Brown?too close to call
Ja'Marr Chase averaged 19.8 points per game this season over 5 games; Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 18.9 over 4. Their medians were 19.7 and 22.1, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 4 of the same weeks; Chase scored more in 1, Brown in 3. On usage, the half that carries forward: Chase took 20.4% of his team's targets, Brown 28.9%, and they took 30% and 33% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 40% against 0%, so Brown was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.9 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Amon-Ra St. Brown or Chris Olave?too close to call
Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 18.9 points per game this season over 4 games; Chris Olave averaged 18.7 over 5. Their medians were 22.1 and 19.7. They both played in 4 of the same weeks; Brown scored more in 2, Olave in 2. On usage, the half that carries forward: Brown took 28.9% of his team's targets, Olave 27.6%, and they took 33% and 6% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 0% against 0%, so Olave was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.2 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Chris Olave or CeeDee Lamb?too close to call
Chris Olave averaged 18.7 points per game this season over 5 games; CeeDee Lamb averaged 17.4 over 5. Their medians were 19.7 and 18.2. They both played in 5 of the same weeks; Olave scored more in 3, Lamb in 2. On usage, the half that carries forward: Olave took 27.6% of his team's targets, Lamb 27.7%, and they took 6% and 21% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 0% against 20%, so Olave was the steadier weekly hold. A 1.3 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
CeeDee Lamb or Rashee Rice?too close to call
CeeDee Lamb averaged 17.4 points per game this season over 5 games; Rashee Rice averaged 17.1 over 3. Their medians were 18.2 and 12.3. They both played in 3 of the same weeks; Lamb scored more in 3, Rice in 0. On usage, the half that carries forward: Lamb took 27.7% of his team's targets, Rice 14.3%, and they took 21% and 16% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 20% against 0%, so Rice was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.3 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Rashee Rice or Davante Adams?too close to call
Rashee Rice averaged 17.1 points per game this season over 3 games; Davante Adams averaged 16.9 over 4. Their medians were 12.3 and 13.9, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 3 of the same weeks; Rice scored more in 1, Adams in 2. On usage, the half that carries forward: Rice took 14.3% of his team's targets, Adams 24.4%, and they took 16% and 16% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 0% against 50%, so Rice was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.2 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
The close calls at QB
adjacent in 2025 scoring — the ones worth arguing aboutJosh Allen or Brock Purdy?Allen by 2.5
Josh Allen averaged 23.9 points per game this season over 4 games; Brock Purdy averaged 21.4 over 4. Their medians were 27.7 and 24.8. They both played in 4 of the same weeks; Allen scored more in 2, Purdy in 2. Bust rate 0% against 0%, so Purdy was the steadier weekly hold.
Brock Purdy or Trevor Lawrence?too close to call
Brock Purdy averaged 21.4 points per game this season over 4 games; Trevor Lawrence averaged 20.6 over 5. Their medians were 24.8 and 19.8. They both played in 4 of the same weeks; Purdy scored more in 3, Lawrence in 1. Bust rate 0% against 20%, so Purdy was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.8 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Trevor Lawrence or Drake Maye?too close to call
Trevor Lawrence averaged 20.6 points per game this season over 5 games; Drake Maye averaged 20.3 over 5. Their medians were 19.8 and 9.8. They both played in 5 of the same weeks; Lawrence scored more in 2, Maye in 3. Bust rate 20% against 20%, so Maye was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.3 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Drake Maye or Patrick Mahomes?too close to call
Drake Maye averaged 20.3 points per game this season over 5 games; Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.2 over 4. Their medians were 9.8 and 19.6, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 4 of the same weeks; Maye scored more in 1, Mahomes in 3. Bust rate 20% against 0%, so Mahomes was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.1 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Patrick Mahomes or Matthew Stafford?too close to call
Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.2 points per game this season over 4 games; Matthew Stafford averaged 20.0 over 4. Their medians were 19.6 and 15.3. They both played in 4 of the same weeks; Mahomes scored more in 3, Stafford in 1. Bust rate 0% against 25%, so Mahomes was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.2 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Matthew Stafford or Jared Goff?Stafford by 1.6
Matthew Stafford averaged 20.0 points per game this season over 4 games; Jared Goff averaged 18.4 over 4. Their medians were 15.3 and 20.0, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 4 of the same weeks; Stafford scored more in 1, Goff in 3. Bust rate 25% against 0%, so Goff was the steadier weekly hold.
The close calls at TE
adjacent in 2025 scoring — the ones worth arguing aboutTrey McBride or Brock Bowers?McBride by 2.9
Trey McBride averaged 19.5 points per game this season over 4 games; Brock Bowers averaged 16.6 over 3. Their medians were 17.3 and 25.0, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 2 of the same weeks; McBride scored more in 0, Bowers in 2. On usage, the half that carries forward: McBride took 31.1% of his team's targets, Bowers 19.5%, and they took 17% and 25% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 0% against 0%, so Bowers was the steadier weekly hold.
Brock Bowers or George Kittle?Bowers by 1.5
Brock Bowers averaged 16.6 points per game this season over 3 games; George Kittle averaged 15.1 over 4. Their medians were 25.0 and 17.5. They both played in 2 of the same weeks; Bowers scored more in 2, Kittle in 0. On usage, the half that carries forward: Bowers took 19.5% of his team's targets, Kittle 20.2%, and they took 25% and 37% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 0% against 25%, so Bowers was the steadier weekly hold.
George Kittle or Tucker Kraft?Kittle by 2.4
George Kittle averaged 15.1 points per game this season over 4 games; Tucker Kraft averaged 12.7 over 5. Their medians were 17.5 and 9.5. They both played in 4 of the same weeks; Kittle scored more in 3, Kraft in 1. On usage, the half that carries forward: Kittle took 20.2% of his team's targets, Kraft 15.9%, and they took 37% and 13% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 25% against 40%, so Kittle was the steadier weekly hold.
Tucker Kraft or Sam LaPorta?too close to call
Tucker Kraft averaged 12.7 points per game this season over 5 games; Sam LaPorta averaged 12.6 over 4. Their medians were 9.5 and 13.5, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 4 of the same weeks; Kraft scored more in 0, LaPorta in 4. On usage, the half that carries forward: Kraft took 15.9% of his team's targets, LaPorta 20.1%, and they took 13% and 21% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 40% against 25%, so LaPorta was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.1 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Sam LaPorta or Dallas Goedert?too close to call
Sam LaPorta averaged 12.6 points per game this season over 4 games; Dallas Goedert averaged 12.3 over 3. Their medians were 13.5 and 9.8. They both played in 2 of the same weeks; LaPorta scored more in 1, Goedert in 1. On usage, the half that carries forward: LaPorta took 20.1% of his team's targets, Goedert 11.2%, and they took 21% and 34% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 25% against 33%, so LaPorta was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.3 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Dallas Goedert or Travis Kelce?too close to call
Dallas Goedert averaged 12.3 points per game this season over 3 games; Travis Kelce averaged 12.2 over 4. Their medians were 9.8 and 12.0, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 2 of the same weeks; Goedert scored more in 1, Kelce in 1. On usage, the half that carries forward: Goedert took 11.2% of his team's targets, Kelce 18.5%, and they took 34% and 23% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 33% against 25%, so Kelce was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.1 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Per-game numbers are 2025 regular season. Boom is a top-12 weekly finish at the position, bust is outside the top 36. Role notes come from the 2026 transaction ledger. Nothing here is a projection — it is what happened, arranged so you can decide.