Weekly Heater

Tested Answers — NFL Questions Settled With Data

First-Quarter Props for Beginners — How to Get Started

Do NFL Favorites Run the Ball More?

Is a Long Run a Repeatable Skill in the NFL?

How Many Red-Zone Trips Does an NFL Team Average Per Game?

Do Running Backs Really Get Stronger in the 4th Quarter?

Is There a Skill to Scoring the First Touchdown?

Do NFL Teams Play Worse After International Games?

Do NFL Teams Run Fewer Plays in International Games?

Do Some NFL Defenses Struggle Against Fast-Paced Offenses?

Does NFL Week 1 Predict the Rest of the Season?

Every answer on this page comes from a backtest we ran ourselves on nflverse play-by-play — method stated, receipts shown. When the data said the popular belief was wrong, we printed that instead.

Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games. Updated 2026-09-13.

Open the live model — any player, any line, all four quarters →

Free printable draft sheets — cheat sheet, boom-or-bust sleepers, week-1 schedule

The college wing — Saturday slates with captured lines, every FBS final graded against the spread, quarter box scores

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