Do Running Backs Really Get Stronger in the 4th Quarter?

Mostly no — what looks like 'wearing the defense down' is game script. Fourth-quarter carries concentrate on WINNING teams' backs (winners hand off 29.4 times per game vs losers' 23.0), so the backs who 'get stronger late' are usually the backs whose teams are ahead.

How we know

We split every 2024-25 back's per-quarter production and controlled for score state. The quarter-by-quarter data for any back is on his player page.

more tested answers · player quarter data · 2025 records

Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games. Updated 2026-07-29.

Open the live model — any player, any line, all four quarters →