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Is There a Skill to Scoring the First Touchdown?

No. First-TD shares are statistically identical to anytime-TD shares (correlation 0.74, same position mix) — no player 'gets out of the gate' more than his overall scoring rate implies. The only real lever is which TEAM scores first, and favorites do so 57-62% of the time depending on spread.

How we know

We compared every 2025 first-TD scorer's share to his anytime share. Books price first-TD markets 10-20% above fair — the sequencing tax — because bettors believe in a trait that doesn't exist.

more tested answers · player quarter data · 2025 records

Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games. Updated 2026-10-29.

Open the live model — any player, any line, all four quarters →

Free printable draft sheets — cheat sheet, boom-or-bust sleepers, week-1 schedule

The college wing — Saturday slates with captured lines, every FBS final graded against the spread, quarter box scores

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