Is There a Skill to Scoring the First Touchdown?
No. First-TD shares are statistically identical to anytime-TD shares (correlation 0.74, same position mix) — no player 'gets out of the gate' more than his overall scoring rate implies. The only real lever is which TEAM scores first, and favorites do so 57-62% of the time depending on spread.
How we know
We compared every 2025 first-TD scorer's share to his anytime share. Books price first-TD markets 10-20% above fair — the sequencing tax — because bettors believe in a trait that doesn't exist.
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