Do Some NFL Defenses Struggle Against Fast-Paced Offenses?
Not as a lasting trait. In 2025 the Jets allowed +1.01 more yards per play against the league's eight highest-play-count offenses than against everyone else (Cleveland +0.94, Green Bay +0.85) — but that 'struggles vs tempo' gap repeats year over year at just r = 0.15, which is noise. There's a measurement trap too: plays per game partly measures GOOD offenses, not just fast ones, so the split flatters the myth before you even test it.
How we know
For 2024 and 2025 we tagged the top-8 offenses by plays per game, compared every defense's yards per play allowed against that group vs the rest of its schedule, and correlated the gap across seasons. Five teams (BAL, CAR, MIN, PHI, TB) struggled both years — roughly what chance produces across 32 teams. Defensive yardage rank itself repeats at r = 0.06: see the full 2024 → 2025 rank-movement table.
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