Does NFL Week 1 Predict the Rest of the Season?
Barely. Week-1 team identity (pass/run lean, motion rate, play-action rate) predicts full-season identity at about r = 0.17 — teams show you almost nothing in the opener that survives to October. The 'overreact to week 1' industry is built on a signal that isn't there.
How we know
We tested week-1 tendencies against rest-of-season tendencies for every 2025 team, including the 'vanilla opener' theory (motion and play-action rates in week 1 are identical to season rates — teams don't hide their scheme; they just aren't consistent yet).
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