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Is a Long Run a Repeatable Skill in the NFL?

Rushing, yes; passing, no. A running back's average longest carry repeats year over year at r = 0.72 — a genuine trait that travels with the player. A quarterback's longest completion repeats at r = 0.01 — statistically pure luck, because a long completion needs a called shot, a busted coverage and a missed tackle to align.

How we know

We built the 'longest-play duel' — per game, which side produced the longer play — and tested year-over-year persistence for every qualifier across 2024-25. Duel win rates: rushing r = 0.47, passing r = 0.02. Same construction, opposite physics.

more tested answers · player quarter data · 2025 records

Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games. Updated 2026-10-29.

Open the live model — any player, any line, all four quarters →

Free printable draft sheets — cheat sheet, boom-or-bust sleepers, week-1 schedule

The college wing — Saturday slates with captured lines, every FBS final graded against the spread, quarter box scores

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