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Do NFL Favorites Run the Ball More?

Yes — but not the way people think. Favorites don't get more plays (61.5 vs 60.4 per game; drives are structurally symmetric at ~10 per team), they change the MIX: favorites of 3+ points handed off 27.7 times per game vs 24.7 for underdogs in 2024-25, and lead running backs gained roughly 0.55 extra rushing yards per point of favoritism — mostly from per-carry efficiency against pass-expecting defenses, not extra carries.

How we know

We measured every 2024-25 regular-season game: plays, drives, runs and fourth-quarter pace by point spread, then re-verified the lead-back effect within-player so back quality couldn't fake it. Underdogs actually run MORE fourth-quarter plays (hurry-up) — they just spend them on passes.

more tested answers · player quarter data · 2025 records

Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games. Updated 2026-07-29.

Open the live model — any player, any line, all four quarters →