Do NFL Favorites Run the Ball More?

Yes — but not the way people think. Favorites don't get more plays (61.5 vs 60.4 per game; drives are structurally symmetric at ~10 per team), they change the MIX: favorites of 3+ points handed off 27.7 times per game vs 24.7 for underdogs in 2024-25, and lead running backs gained roughly 0.55 extra rushing yards per point of favoritism — mostly from per-carry efficiency against pass-expecting defenses, not extra carries.