SF at LA — Week 1 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props
LA -3 over SF with an over/under of 48.5 · Thursday, 9/10. LA's implied 25.75 points forecast 4.9 red-zone trips; SF projects 4.2. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, the posted player props our model disagrees with, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.
Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2025 yards/game)
| Offense | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|
| SF passing | 20.2 | 41.5 | 28.1 | 34.1 |
| SF rushing | 19.9 | 19.9 | 20.5 | 13.9 |
| LA passing | 63.9 | 75.6 | 69.7 | 60.2 |
| LA rushing | 35.2 | 27.3 | 22.9 | 38.8 |
Quarter splits computed from nflverse play-by-play — the
data this site exists to publish. Deeper cuts: SF
offense · LA defense ·
LA offense ·
SF defense
Posted props our model has an opinion on
| Player | Prop | Our edge | Why |
|---|
| Kyren Williams (LA) | rush yds Over 58.5 | +18.7 | our fair is 77.2 vs the 58.5 consensus (+18.7) |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | anytime TD Over | -4.4 | the λ model misses QB sneaks — his EMPIRICAL 2025 scoring rate is 28%, well past what the price implies |
Edge = our number minus the posted consensus. Lines move daily — treat as a snapshot.
Players to watch
SF: Christian McCaffrey (RB, 23.6 proj), Brock Purdy (QB, 19 proj), George Kittle (TE, 15 proj)
LA: Puka Nacua (WR, 22.5 proj), Matthew Stafford (QB, 18.8 proj), Davante Adams (WR, 16.3 proj)
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