Week 1 games › CLE @ JAX

CLE at JAX — Week 1 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props

JAX -7.5 over CLE with an over/under of 40.5 · Sunday, 9/13. JAX's implied 24 points forecast 4.5 red-zone trips; CLE projects 2.6. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, the posted player props our model disagrees with, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.

Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2025 yards/game)

Offense	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
CLE passing	10.8	18.9	8.8	16.6
CLE rushing	21.0	16.5	17.2	23.8
JAX passing	62.0	63.6	65.5	42.4
JAX rushing	22.1	21.7	16.9	17.9

Quarter splits computed from nflverse play-by-play — the data this site exists to publish. Deeper cuts: CLE offense · JAX defense · JAX offense · CLE defense

Posted props our model has an opinion on

Player	Prop	Our edge	Why
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX)	rec yds Over 36.5	+21.4	our fair is 57.9 vs the posted 36.5 (DraftKings, +21.4)

Edge = our number minus the posted consensus. Lines move daily — treat as a snapshot.

Players to watch

CLE: Quinshon Judkins (RB, 12.1 proj), Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, 11.7 proj), Jerry Jeudy (WR, 8.9 proj)

JAX: Trevor Lawrence (QB, 19 proj), Jakobi Meyers (WR, 11.9 proj), Brian Thomas Jr. (WR, 11.9 proj)

FAQ

Who is favored in CLE at JAX in Week 1?

JAX is favored by 7.5 points, with an over/under of 40.5.

When do the Cleveland Browns play the Jacksonville Jaguars?

Week 1 of the 2026 season: Sunday, 9/13 (2026-09-13), CLE at JAX.

Which player props look good in CLE at JAX?

Our model's biggest disagreements with the posted lines: Brian Thomas Jr. rec yds Over 36.5 (edge +21.4). The full table is on this page.

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Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games. Updated 2026-09-13.

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