BUF at NYJ — Week 10 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props
BUF -8.5 over NYJ with an over/under of 50.5 · Sunday, 11/15. NYJ's implied 18.25 points forecast 3.0 red-zone trips; BUF projects 4.3. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, every posted player prop with how it has graded this season, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.
Spread
Money
Total
BUFBills7-1
−8.5open −7.5
−440open −470
O 50.5open 50.5
NYJJets2-7
+8.5open +7.5
+340open +360
U 50.5open 50.5
Sun, Nov 151:00 PM ETWeek 10
Game environment
What the market expects, and how fast and pass-heavy each team plays.
Team
Exp pts
Season avg
Opp allows
Plays/g
Pass rate
RZ trips
BUFBills
29.5−2.5 vs avg
32.0
24.8
63.0
51%
4.3projected
NYJJets
21.0+0.8 vs avg
20.2
23.4
58.3
57%
3.0projected
Buffalo −8.5 with a 50.5 total works out to 29.5 to 21.0. Only Jets is forecast to beat their season scoring average. Buffalo runs 4.7 more plays a game, so more volume for Bills props.
Recent form
The last 8 games against the spread and against the total.
BUFBillsAgainst the spreadW−1.5W−5.5W−7.0L−7.0W+3.5L−5.5W−3.0W−3.06-2Game totalsO44.5O54.5U50.5O49.5O55.5O53.5U54.5U45.55-3
NYJJetsAgainst the spreadW+1.5W+3.5–+7.0L+3.5W−2.5W+7.5L−3.5L−1.5L+9.54-4Game totalsU39.5U44.5O49.5U43.5U38.5O43.5O39.5O46.5U47.54-5
Best prop spots
The softest spots in each defense, and how the props there have done this season.
Jets passing vs Buffalo
Fire
239pass yds allowed4th most
Most allowedFewest
Props here no results yet
Bills run game vs NY
Hot
129rush yds allowed7th most
Most allowedFewest
Props here no results yet
Jets TEs vs Buffalo
Hot
60TE yds allowed7th most
Most allowedFewest
Props here no results yet
Line movement
Since open
Game lines
SpreadBills−7.5 → −8.5▼1
TotalOver / under50.5 → 50.5
MoneylineBills−470 → −440▲30
Bills offense vs NY defenseWhat Buffalo gains, and what NY gives up
Points
Warm
32.0Buffalo gains1st
1st32nd
24.8NY allows12th most
Most allowedFewest
Rush yards
Hot
148Buffalo gains2nd
1st32nd
129NY allows7th most
Most allowedFewest
Pass yards
Tough
240Buffalo gains13th
1st32nd
198NY allows29th most
Most allowedFewest
Total yards
Even
388Buffalo gains1st
1st32nd
327NY allows21st most
Most allowedFewest
Yards to WRs
Tough
140Buffalo gains11th
1st32nd
101NY allows29th most
Most allowedFewest
EPA per play
Warm
0.14Buffalo gains4th
1st32nd
0.039NY allows11th most
Most allowedFewest
Bills players
OOver UUnder –No line
Player
This week’s prop
Avg
vs line
Weeks 1 to 10
Record
DJ MooreWR
rec yds 48.5
47.5
−1.0
OUOU–––OU–
3-3
Skyler BellWR
rec yds 6.5
0.0
−6.5
––––U–––––
0-1 U
DJ MooreWR
receptions 3.5
3.2
−0.3
OUOU–––UU–
2-4 U
Skyler BellWR
receptions 0.5
0.0
−0.5
––––U–––––
0-1 U
Jets offense vs Buffalo defenseWhat NY gains, and what Buffalo gives up
Points
Even
20.2NY gains25th
1st32nd
23.4Buffalo allows17th most
Most allowedFewest
Rush yards
Tough
106NY gains20th
1st32nd
92Buffalo allows26th most
Most allowedFewest
Pass yards
Fire
205NY gains22nd
1st32nd
239Buffalo allows4th most
Most allowedFewest
Total yards
Even
311NY gains23rd
1st32nd
331Buffalo allows18th most
Most allowedFewest
Yards to WRs
Warm
112NY gains22nd
1st32nd
145Buffalo allows12th most
Most allowedFewest
EPA per play
Even
0.003NY gains15th
1st32nd
-0.01Buffalo allows20th most
Most allowedFewest
Jets players
OOver UUnder –No line
Player
This week’s prop
Avg
vs line
Weeks 1 to 10
Record
Adonai MitchellWR
rec yds 44.5
53.0
+8.5
OO––––UOU–
3-2 O
Tim PatrickWR
rec yds 12.5
15.0
+2.5
–––––U––––
0-1 U
Adonai MitchellWR
receptions 3.5
3.2
−0.3
OO––––UOU–
3-2 O
Tim PatrickWR
receptions 1.5
1.0
−0.5
–––––U––––
0-1 U
Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2026 yards per game)
Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games.
Updated 2026-11-13.
Weekly