WeeklyHeater

KC at SEA — Week 7 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props

SEA -3 over KC with an over/under of 42.5 · Sunday, 10/25. SEA's implied 24 points forecast 4.5 red-zone trips; KC projects 4.1. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, every posted player prop with how it has graded this season, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.
Spread
Money
Total
KCChiefs5-0
+3.0open +3.0
+120open +124
O 42.5open 42.5
SEASeahawks3-3
−3.0open −3.0
−142open −148
U 42.5open 42.5
Sun, Oct 258:20 PM ETWeek 7See all 295 props

Injuries

GAME STATUSFrom this week’s report. Props marked affected may move.
KCKANSAS CITY CHIEFS3 out
OUTBrashard SmithRunning Back • Hamstring
OUTJaylon MooreOffensive Tackle • Concussion
OUTRashee RiceWide Receiver • Hamstring
QUESTIONABLECooper McDonaldLinebacker • Knee
QUESTIONABLEL'Jarius SneedCornerback • Knee
SEASEATTLE SEAHAWKS3 out
OUTChazz SurrattLinebacker • Calf
OUTDrake ThomasLinebacker • Ankle
OUTZach CharbonnetRunning Back • Knee
QUESTIONABLEConnor O'TooleLinebacker • Hamstring
QUESTIONABLEDeMarcus LawrenceLinebacker • Knee

Game environment

What the market expects, and how fast and pass-heavy each team plays.
TeamExp ptsSeason avgOpp allowsPlays/gPass rateRZ trips
KCChiefs19.8−8.2 vs avg28.020.360.854%4.1projected
SEASeahawks22.8−1.9 vs avg24.716.662.557%4.5projected
Seattle −3.0 with a 42.5 total works out to 19.8 to 22.8. Both teams are forecast to fall short of their season scoring average.

Recent form

The last 5 games against the spread and against the total.
KCChiefsAgainst the spreadW−2.5L−6.0W−10.0L−5.5W−7.5 3-2Game totalsU42.5O46.5U45.5O47.5U41.5 2-3
SEASeahawksAgainst the spread–−3.0W−3.5L−8.5–−7.0L−3.0L−3.0 1-3Game totalsU44.5U40.5O40.5O42.5O46.5U40.5 3-3

Best prop spots

The softest spots in each defense, and how the props there have done this season.

Seahawks TEs vs Kansas City

Hot
75TE yds allowed5th most
Most allowedFewest
AJ Barnerrec yds 24.5UUOUUU–1-5
Props here 1 over, 5 under

Seahawks passing vs Kansas City

Even
218pass yds allowed20th most
Most allowedFewest
Sam Darnoldpass yds 224.5U–OUUO–2-3
Props here 2 over, 3 under

Chiefs run game vs Seattle

Even
97rush yds allowed23rd most
Most allowedFewest
Kenneth Walker IIIrush yds 84.5OOUO–O–4-1
Emmett Johnsonrush yds 8.5–UUU–U–0-4
Props here 4 over, 5 under

Line movement

Since open
Game lines
SpreadChiefs+3.0 → +3.0
TotalOver / under42.5 → 42.5
MoneylineChiefs+124 → +120 ▼4

Chiefs offense vs Seattle defenseWhat Kansas City gains, and what Seattle gives up

Points

Tough
28.0Kansas City gains5th
1st32nd
20.3Seattle allows28th most
Most allowedFewest

Rush yards

Even
161Kansas City gains1st
1st32nd
97Seattle allows23rd most
Most allowedFewest

Pass yards

Tough
254Kansas City gains9th
1st32nd
142Seattle allows32nd most
Most allowedFewest

Total yards

Tough
416Kansas City gains1st
1st32nd
238Seattle allows32nd most
Most allowedFewest

Yards to WRs

Tough
134Kansas City gains17th
1st32nd
98Seattle allows31st most
Most allowedFewest

EPA per play

Tough
0.155Kansas City gains5th
1st32nd
-0.135Seattle allows31st most
Most allowedFewest

Chiefs players

OOver UUnder –No line
PlayerThis week’s propAvgvs lineWeeks 1 to 7Record
Patrick MahomesQBpass yds 221.5261.8+40.3UOOU–O–3-2 O
Kenneth Walker IIIRBrush yds 84.5133.0+48.5OOUO–O–4-1 O
Xavier WorthyWRrec yds 49.541.2−8.3UUUO–O–2-3 U
Travis KelceTErec yds 46.559.8+13.3OOOU–U–3-2 O
Kenneth Walker IIIRBrec yds 20.519.0−1.5OOUU–U–2-3 U
Noah GrayTErec yds 17.518.8+1.3UU–O–O–2-2
Patrick MahomesQBrush yds 14.511.4−3.1OUUU–O–2-3 U
Emmett JohnsonRBrush yds 8.59.5+1.0–UUU–U–0-4 U
Travis KelceTEreceptions 4.54.0−0.5UOUU–U–1-4 U
Xavier WorthyWRreceptions 4.54.2−0.3UOUO–O–3-2 O
Kenneth Walker IIIRBreceptions 3.52.8−0.7UOUU–U–1-4 U
Noah GrayTEreceptions 1.51.5−0.0UU–O–O–2-2

Seahawks offense vs Kansas City defenseWhat Seattle gains, and what Kansas City gives up

Points

Tough
24.7Seattle gains13th
1st32nd
16.6Kansas City allows31st most
Most allowedFewest

Rush yards

Tough
108Seattle gains18th
1st32nd
89Kansas City allows26th most
Most allowedFewest

Pass yards

Even
225Seattle gains16th
1st32nd
218Kansas City allows20th most
Most allowedFewest

Total yards

Tough
333Seattle gains17th
1st32nd
307Kansas City allows27th most
Most allowedFewest

Yards to WRs

Tough
188Seattle gains5th
1st32nd
99Kansas City allows30th most
Most allowedFewest

EPA per play

Tough
-0.076Seattle gains24th
1st32nd
-0.102Kansas City allows30th most
Most allowedFewest

Seahawks players

OOver UUnder –No line
PlayerThis week’s propAvgvs lineWeeks 1 to 7Record
Sam DarnoldQBpass yds 224.5206.6−17.9U–OUUO–2-3 U
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRrec yds 93.5119.5+26.0OOOUOO–5-1 O
Jadarian PriceRBrush yds 41.539.7−1.8OUU––––1-2 U
Rashid ShaheedWRrec yds 24.527.0+2.5UOUUOO–3-3
Cooper KuppWRrec yds 24.529.8+5.3OUOUUO–3-3
AJ BarnerTErec yds 24.523.0−1.5UUOUUU–1-5 U
Tory HortonWRrec yds 11.516.8+5.3––OUUO–2-2
Jadarian PriceRBrec yds 10.57.0−3.5UUU––––0-3 U
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRreceptions 6.58.2+1.7OOOUUO–4-2 O
Sam DarnoldQBrush yds 5.57.0+1.5U–UOOO–3-2 O
Rashid ShaheedWRreceptions 2.52.3−0.2UOUUUO–2-4 U
Cooper KuppWRreceptions 2.52.7+0.2UUOUUO–2-4 U
AJ BarnerTEreceptions 2.52.5−0.0UUOUOU–2-4 U
Jadarian PriceRBreceptions 1.51.3−0.2OUU––––1-2 U
Tory HortonWRreceptions 1.50.7−0.8–––OUO–2-1 O

Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2026 yards per game)

OffenseQ1Q2Q3Q4
KC passing53.676.851.480.0
KC rushing37.839.250.232.6
SEA passing54.754.260.875.2
SEA rushing21.533.222.729.8

Quarter splits computed from nflverse play-by-play — the data this site exists to publish. Deeper cuts: KC offense · SEA defense · SEA offense · KC defense

Players to watch

KC: Patrick Mahomes (QB, 19.6 proj), Rashee Rice (WR, 18.4 proj), Kenneth Walker III (RB, 12.2 proj)

SEA: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, 19.5 proj), Sam Darnold (QB, 15 proj), Zach Charbonnet (RB, 11.2 proj)

FAQ

Who is favored in KC at SEA in Week 7?

SEA is favored by 3 points, with an over/under of 42.5.

When do the Kansas City Chiefs play the Seattle Seahawks?

Week 7 of the 2026 season: Sunday, 10/25 (2026-10-25), KC at SEA.

Which player props look good in KC at SEA?

No posted-line disagreements yet — player props for this game post closer to kickoff; the quarter tendencies on this page are final.

Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games. Updated 2026-10-25.

Open the live model — any player, any line, all four quarters →

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