NE at MIA — Week 8 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props
NE -7.5 over MIA with an over/under of 44.5 · Sunday, 11/1. MIA's implied 19.25 points forecast 3.3 red-zone trips; NE projects 3.6. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, every posted player prop with how it has graded this season, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.
What the market expects, and how fast and pass-heavy each team plays.
Team
Exp pts
Season avg
Opp allows
Plays/g
Pass rate
RZ trips
NEPatriots
26.0+3.1 vs avg
22.9
26.2
61.3
54%
3.6projected
MIADolphins
18.5+2.2 vs avg
16.3
20.4
56.0
50%
3.3projected
New England −7.5 with a 44.5 total works out to 26.0 to 18.5. Both teams are forecast to beat their season scoring average. New England runs 5.3 more plays a game, so more volume for Patriots props.
Recent form
The last 7 games against the spread and against the total.
NEPatriotsAgainst the spread–+3.0W−4.5L+3.0W+7.0W−3.5L−7.5L+3.03-3Game totalsU44.5U41.5U46.5O49.5O45.5O43.5O50.54-3
MIADolphinsAgainst the spreadL+3.0L+12.5L+10.0W+10.0–+7.0W+3.52-3Game totalsU40.5O44.5U45.5U38.5O44.5O39.53-3
Best prop spots
The softest spots in each defense, and how the props there have done this season.
Patriots TEs vs Miami
Fire
74TE yds allowed3rd most
Most allowedFewest
Props here no results yet
Dolphins TEs vs New England
Warm
52TE yds allowed13th most
Most allowedFewest
Props here no results yet
Patriots passing vs Miami
Warm
228pass yds allowed14th most
Most allowedFewest
Props here no results yet
Line movement
Since open
Game lines
SpreadPatriots−7.5 → −7.5
TotalOver / under44.5 → 44.5
MoneylinePatriots−395 → −395
Patriots offense vs Miami defenseWhat New England gains, and what Miami gives up
Points
Hot
22.9New England gains19th
1st32nd
26.2Miami allows8th most
Most allowedFewest
Rush yards
Even
123New England gains11th
1st32nd
113Miami allows17th most
Most allowedFewest
Pass yards
Warm
253New England gains9th
1st32nd
228Miami allows14th most
Most allowedFewest
Total yards
Even
377New England gains7th
1st32nd
341Miami allows17th most
Most allowedFewest
Yards to WRs
Tough
157New England gains10th
1st32nd
93Miami allows31st most
Most allowedFewest
EPA per play
Fire
0.056New England gains11th
1st32nd
0.133Miami allows3rd most
Most allowedFewest
Patriots players
OOver UUnder –No line
Player
This week’s prop
Avg
vs line
Weeks 1 to 7
Record
TreVeyon HendersonRB
rush yds 28.5
33.8
+5.3
–OUOUOU
3-3
TreVeyon HendersonRB
rec yds 7.5
5.5
−2.0
–UUUUOO
2-4 U
Dolphins offense vs New England defenseWhat Miami gains, and what New England gives up
Points
Even
16.3Miami gains30th
1st32nd
20.4New England allows24th most
Most allowedFewest
Rush yards
Tough
132Miami gains7th
1st32nd
96New England allows25th most
Most allowedFewest
Pass yards
Even
162Miami gains30th
1st32nd
220New England allows18th most
Most allowedFewest
Total yards
Even
294Miami gains27th
1st32nd
316New England allows24th most
Most allowedFewest
Yards to WRs
Even
67Miami gains31st
1st32nd
128New England allows19th most
Most allowedFewest
EPA per play
Warm
-0.042Miami gains24th
1st32nd
0.02New England allows14th most
Most allowedFewest
Dolphins players
OOver UUnder –No line
Player
This week’s prop
Avg
vs line
Weeks 1 to 7
Record
Jalen TolbertWR
rec yds 10.5
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—
–––––––
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Jalen TolbertWR
receptions 1.5
—
—
–––––––
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Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2026 yards per game)
Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games.
Updated 2026-10-27.
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