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TB @ CHI
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TB at CHI — Week 9 2026 Preview, Odds & Player Props

CHI -4.5 over TB with an over/under of 47.5 · Sunday, 11/8. CHI's implied 23.5 points forecast 4.3 red-zone trips; TB projects 4.3. Below: both offenses quarter by quarter, every posted player prop with how it has graded this season, and the players to watch — from play-by-play data nobody else publishes.
Spread
Money
Total
TBBuccaneers3-5
+4.5open +4.5
+190open +190
O 47.5open 47.5
CHIBears6-2
−4.5open −4.5
−230open −230
U 47.5open 47.5
Sun, Nov 88:20 PM ETWeek 9

Game environment

What the market expects, and how fast and pass-heavy each team plays.
TeamExp ptsSeason avgOpp allowsPlays/gPass rateRZ trips
TBBuccaneers21.5−0.7 vs avg22.220.061.447%4.3projected
CHIBears26.0−0.8 vs avg26.818.970.852%4.3projected
Chicago −4.5 with a 47.5 total works out to 21.5 to 26.0. Both teams are forecast to fall short of their season scoring average. Chicago runs 9.4 more plays a game, so more volume for Bears props.

Recent form

The last 8 games against the spread and against the total.
TBBuccaneersAgainst the spreadL+3.5L−8.5L−1.5–+3.0W+9.5L+2.5W+3.0W−1.5 3-4Game totalsO50.5O41.5U42.5U38.5U49.5O37.5O44.5U42.5 4-4
CHIBearsAgainst the spreadW−3.0L−4.5W+3.5W−3.5L−1.5W−1.5W−3.0W+3.0 6-2Game totalsO47.5U46.5U42.5U43.5U46.5O51.5O50.5O46.5 4-4

Best prop spots

The softest spots in each defense, and how the props there have done this season.

Bears TEs vs Tampa Bay

Warm
56TE yds allowed11th most
Most allowedFewest
Props here no results yet

Buccaneers WRs vs Chicago

Warm
143WR yds allowed13th most
Most allowedFewest
Jalen McMillanrec yds 34.5–UU–––––0-2
Props here 0 over, 2 under

Buccaneers passing vs Chicago

Even
220pass yds allowed19th most
Most allowedFewest
Props here no results yet

Line movement

Since open
Game lines
SpreadBuccaneers+4.5 → +4.5
TotalOver / under47.5 → 47.5
MoneylineBuccaneers+190 → +190

Buccaneers offense vs Chicago defenseWhat Tampa Bay gains, and what Chicago gives up

Points

Tough
22.2Tampa Bay gains20th
1st32nd
20.0Chicago allows25th most
Most allowedFewest

Rush yards

Tough
170Tampa Bay gains1st
1st32nd
87Chicago allows29th most
Most allowedFewest

Pass yards

Even
131Tampa Bay gains32nd
1st32nd
220Chicago allows19th most
Most allowedFewest

Total yards

Tough
301Tampa Bay gains25th
1st32nd
307Chicago allows26th most
Most allowedFewest

Yards to WRs

Warm
83Tampa Bay gains30th
1st32nd
143Chicago allows13th most
Most allowedFewest

EPA per play

Even
-0.094Tampa Bay gains27th
1st32nd
-0.024Chicago allows21st most
Most allowedFewest

Buccaneers players

OOver UUnder –No line
PlayerThis week’s propAvgvs lineWeeks 1 to 8Record
Jalen McMillanWRrec yds 34.50.0−34.5–UU–––––0-2 U
Jalen McMillanWRreceptions 2.50.0−2.5–UU–––––0-2 U

Bears offense vs Tampa Bay defenseWhat Chicago gains, and what Tampa Bay gives up

Points

Tough
26.8Chicago gains8th
1st32nd
18.9Tampa Bay allows28th most
Most allowedFewest

Rush yards

Tough
152Chicago gains2nd
1st32nd
82Tampa Bay allows31st most
Most allowedFewest

Pass yards

Even
236Chicago gains13th
1st32nd
206Tampa Bay allows24th most
Most allowedFewest

Total yards

Tough
388Chicago gains3rd
1st32nd
288Tampa Bay allows30th most
Most allowedFewest

Yards to WRs

Tough
161Chicago gains8th
1st32nd
103Tampa Bay allows28th most
Most allowedFewest

EPA per play

Tough
0.063Chicago gains8th
1st32nd
-0.158Tampa Bay allows31st most
Most allowedFewest

Bears players

OOver UUnder –No line
PlayerThis week’s propAvgvs lineWeeks 1 to 8Record
Tyson BagentQBpass yds 174.5177.5+3.0–––OU–––1-1
Kyle MonangaiRBrush yds 50.581.0+30.5OOUO––––3-1 O
Tyson BagentQBrush yds 17.59.0−8.5–––UO–––1-1

Both offenses, quarter by quarter (2026 yards per game)

OffenseQ1Q2Q3Q4
TB passing32.542.534.937.6
TB rushing39.243.447.138.9
CHI passing69.675.157.152.0
CHI rushing35.129.837.948.0

Quarter splits computed from nflverse play-by-play — the data this site exists to publish. Deeper cuts: TB offense · CHI defense · CHI offense · TB defense

Players to watch

TB: Baker Mayfield (QB, 17.4 proj), Bucky Irving (RB, 14 proj), Chris Godwin Jr. (WR, 11.5 proj)

CHI: Caleb Williams (QB, 17.7 proj), D'Andre Swift (RB, 13.8 proj), Rome Odunze (WR, 11 proj)

FAQ

Who is favored in TB at CHI in Week 9?

CHI is favored by 4.5 points, with an over/under of 47.5.

When do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play the Chicago Bears?

Week 9 of the 2026 season: Sunday, 11/8 (2026-11-08), TB at CHI.

Which player props look good in TB at CHI?

No posted-line disagreements yet — player props for this game post closer to kickoff; the quarter tendencies on this page are final.

all week-9 previews · week-9 slate · Hit Tracker · Prop Lab

Methodology: computed from nflverse play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games. Updated 2026-11-04.

Open the live model — any player, any line, all four quarters →

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