The Receipts — Every Captured Line, Graded
Every line we captured before kickoff, graded after: 19,979 player props and 1282 games so far in 2026. College favorites are 652-523-20 against the spread and anytime-TD prices have hit 16.7% of the time against an implied 26.6%. NFL: 107 games and 11,535 props graded through the games played.
College football
652-523-20favorites ATS55.5% covered · 134 outright upsets
629-566overs vs unders52.6% went over
16.7%anytime-TD prices that hit929 of 5,568 · the prices implied 26.6%
47.1%yardage lines that went over1356 of 2,876 graded · 34 pending
Week by week
| Week | Games graded | Favorites ATS | Dogs covered | Over / Under | Anytime TD hit | Yardage overs |
|---|
| 7 | 245 | 130-115-553.1% | 11531 won outright | 129-12151.6% over | 249 of 1,52316.3% vs 25.9% priced | 410 of 83049.4% over |
| 6 | 238 | 129-109-554.2% | 10927 won outright | 128-11552.7% over | 170 of 99217.1% vs 25.4% priced | 319 of 67947.0% over |
| 4 | 236 | 128-108-454.2% | 10826 won outright | 127-11352.9% over | 213 of 1,40715.1% vs 25.5% priced | 314 of 69345.3% over |
| 3 | 181 | 104-77-257.5% | 7720 won outright | 96-8752.5% over | 14 of 5326.4% vs 29.8% priced | 0 of 0— over |
| 2 | 180 | 103-77-257.2% | 7720 won outright | 96-8652.7% over | 81 of 50616.0% vs 28.6% priced | 115 of 26044.2% over |
| 1 | 95 | 58-37-261.1% | 3710 won outright | 53-4454.6% over | 202 of 1,08718.6% vs 28.9% priced | 198 of 41447.8% over |
| Season | 1175 | 652-523-2055.5% | 523134 won outright | 629-56652.6% over | 929 of 5,56816.7% vs 26.6% priced | 1356 of 2,87647.1% over |
Frozen weekly pages: week 1 props · week 1 ATS · week 2 props · week 2 ATS · week 3 props · week 3 ATS · week 4 props · week 4 ATS · week 6 props · week 6 ATS · week 7 props · week 7 ATS
Anytime-TD prices, season to date
| Price implied | Props | Priced at | Actually hit | Difference |
|---|
| 0–20% | 2,453 | 13.4% | 6.6% | -6.8 pts |
| 20–35% | 1,671 | 26.2% | 15.4% | -10.7 pts |
| 35–50% | 845 | 41.0% | 27.2% | -13.8 pts |
| 50–70% | 484 | 57.9% | 42.1% | -15.7 pts |
| 70–100% | 115 | 76.2% | 66.1% | -10.1 pts |
Anytime-TD prices settle from ESPN scoring timelines the night the game ends; yardage lines from the player-stats feed. Game bets are graded against the DraftKings line captured before kickoff.
NFL
45-56-6favorites ATS44.6% covered · 41 outright upsets
56-51overs vs unders52.3% went over
16.0%anytime-TD prices that hit433 of 2,701 · the prices implied 18.4%
46.1%yardage lines that went over4071 of 8,834 graded
Week by week
| Week | Games graded | Favorites ATS | Dogs covered | Over / Under | Anytime TD hit | Yardage overs |
|---|
| 7 | 14 | 8-657.1% | 64 won outright | 9-564.3% over | 61 of 35417.2% vs 18.3% priced | 530 of 1,19944.2% over |
| 6 | 14 | 5-935.7% | 96 won outright | 7-750.0% over | 51 of 35414.4% vs 18.1% priced | 545 of 1,19045.8% over |
| 5 | 15 | 7-7-150.0% | 76 won outright | 8-753.3% over | 64 of 37017.3% vs 18.5% priced | 561 of 1,23145.6% over |
| 4 | 16 | 4-10-228.6% | 107 won outright | 9-756.2% over | 66 of 40116.5% vs 18.6% priced | 651 of 1,36747.6% over |
| 3 | 16 | 4-10-228.6% | 109 won outright | 8-850.0% over | 70 of 41516.9% vs 17.9% priced | 614 of 1,29047.6% over |
| 2 | 16 | 8-850.0% | 85 won outright | 6-1037.5% over | 52 of 40612.8% vs 18.5% priced | 529 of 1,24842.4% over |
| 1 | 16 | 9-6-160.0% | 64 won outright | 9-756.2% over | 69 of 40117.2% vs 18.7% priced | 641 of 1,30949.0% over |
| Season | 107 | 45-56-644.6% | 5641 won outright | 56-5152.3% over | 433 of 2,70116.0% vs 18.4% priced | 4071 of 8,83446.1% over |
Anytime-TD prices, season to date
| Price implied | Props | Priced at | Actually hit | Difference |
|---|
| 0–20% | 1,702 | 8.9% | 7.2% | -1.7 pts |
| 20–35% | 605 | 26.2% | 22.5% | -3.7 pts |
| 35–50% | 252 | 40.6% | 38.1% | -2.5 pts |
| 50–70% | 126 | 56.9% | 51.6% | -5.3 pts |
| 70–100% | 16 | 74.0% | 81.2% | +7.3 pts |
Settles from nflverse play-by-play the morning after each game. Game bets are graded against the closing spread and total from our last pre-kick capture. A player who dressed but never recorded the stat settles at 0; inactives stay pending.
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