The Receipts — Every Captured Line, Graded
Every line we captured before kickoff, graded after: 3,977 player props and 254 games so far in 2026. College favorites are 142-96-4 against the spread and anytime-TD prices have hit 17.8% of the time against an implied 28.8%. NFL: 16 games and 1,710 props graded through the games played.
College football
142-96-4favorites ATS59.7% covered · 28 outright upsets
129-113overs vs unders53.3% went over
17.8%anytime-TD prices that hit283 of 1,593 · the prices implied 28.8%
46.4%yardage lines that went over313 of 674 graded · 24 pending
Week by week
| Week | Games graded | Favorites ATS | Dogs covered | Over / Under | Anytime TD hit | Yardage overs |
|---|
| 2 | 143 | 84-59-258.7% | 5918 won outright | 76-6952.4% over | 81 of 50616.0% vs 28.6% priced | 115 of 26044.2% over |
| 1 | 95 | 58-37-261.1% | 3710 won outright | 53-4454.6% over | 202 of 1,08718.6% vs 28.9% priced | 198 of 41447.8% over |
| Season | 238 | 142-96-459.7% | 9628 won outright | 129-11353.3% over | 283 of 1,59317.8% vs 28.8% priced | 313 of 67446.4% over |
Frozen weekly pages: week 1 props · week 1 ATS · week 2 props · week 2 ATS
Anytime-TD prices, season to date
| Price implied | Props | Priced at | Actually hit | Difference |
|---|
| 0–20% | 593 | 13.1% | 8.9% | -4.2 pts |
| 20–35% | 505 | 26.3% | 12.3% | -14.0 pts |
| 35–50% | 285 | 41.1% | 23.5% | -17.6 pts |
| 50–70% | 161 | 58.5% | 45.3% | -13.2 pts |
| 70–100% | 49 | 76.7% | 57.1% | -19.6 pts |
Anytime-TD prices settle from ESPN scoring timelines the night the game ends; yardage lines from the player-stats feed. Game bets are graded against the DraftKings line captured before kickoff.
NFL
9-6-1favorites ATS60.0% covered · 4 outright upsets
9-7overs vs unders56.2% went over
17.2%anytime-TD prices that hit69 of 401 · the prices implied 17.9%
49.0%yardage lines that went over641 of 1,309 graded
Week by week
| Week | Games graded | Favorites ATS | Dogs covered | Over / Under | Anytime TD hit | Yardage overs |
|---|
| 1 | 16 | 9-6-160.0% | 64 won outright | 9-756.2% over | 69 of 40117.2% vs 17.9% priced | 641 of 1,30949.0% over |
| Season | 16 | 9-6-160.0% | 64 won outright | 9-756.2% over | 69 of 40117.2% vs 17.9% priced | 641 of 1,30949.0% over |
Anytime-TD prices, season to date
| Price implied | Props | Priced at | Actually hit | Difference |
|---|
| 0–20% | 252 | 8.7% | 7.5% | -1.1 pts |
| 20–35% | 93 | 26.3% | 23.7% | -2.7 pts |
| 35–50% | 41 | 41.1% | 39.0% | -2.0 pts |
| 50–70% | 14 | 56.7% | 78.6% | +21.9 pts |
| 70–100% | 1 | 72.2% | 100.0% | +27.8 pts |
Settles from nflverse play-by-play the morning after each game. Game bets are graded against the closing spread and total from our last pre-kick capture. A player who dressed but never recorded the stat settles at 0; inactives stay pending.
Weekly