Compare Players
Pick two players and get the arithmetic, not an opinion: 2025 points per game and median, how often each boomed or busted, the head-to-head weekly record, floor and ceiling, and what changed about their role for 2026. How to use this page ›
- Pick a player on each side. The table fills in immediately and the URL updates, so any comparison is a link you can send.
- The bolder number in each row is the better one. Rows are last season's record, not a projection.
- The sentences under the table are the reasoning, including what changed about each player's role for 2026.
- Scroll down for the close calls at each position, already worked out.
NOT A TAKE.
Already worked out
the pairs people actually argue about, with the arithmeticEach pair below finished next to each other in 2025 scoring at their position, which is where a start-or-sit question is genuinely hard. Open any one to load it in the tool above.
The close calls at RB
adjacent in 2025 scoring — the ones worth arguing aboutChristian McCaffrey or Bijan Robinson?McCaffrey by 2.7
Christian McCaffrey averaged 24.5 points per game in 2025 over 17 games; Bijan Robinson averaged 21.8 over 17. Their medians were 24.1 and 21.2. They both played in 16 of the same weeks; McCaffrey scored more in 10, Robinson in 6. On usage, the half that carries forward: McCaffrey took 24.8% of his team's targets, Robinson 19.9%, and they took 24% and 18% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 0% against 12%, so McCaffrey was the steadier weekly hold. For 2026 McCaffrey gained ground — 20% of carries vacated (Brian Robinson out). Robinson changes quarterback, Michael Penix Jr. to Tua Tagovailoa, so his 2025 target pattern may not carry.
Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs?too close to call
Bijan Robinson averaged 21.8 points per game in 2025 over 17 games; Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 21.6 over 17. Their medians were 21.2 and 19.4. They both played in 16 of the same weeks; Robinson scored more in 10, Gibbs in 6. On usage, the half that carries forward: Robinson took 19.9% of his team's targets, Gibbs 17.1%, and they took 18% and 29% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 12% against 18%, so Robinson was the steadier weekly hold. Robinson changes quarterback, Michael Penix Jr. to Tua Tagovailoa, so his 2025 target pattern may not carry. A 0.2 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Jahmyr Gibbs or Jonathan Taylor?too close to call
Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 21.6 points per game in 2025 over 17 games; Jonathan Taylor averaged 21.3 over 17. Their medians were 19.4 and 16.9. They both played in 16 of the same weeks; Gibbs scored more in 7, Taylor in 9. On usage, the half that carries forward: Gibbs took 17.1% of his team's targets, Taylor 10.4%, and they took 29% and 33% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 18% against 12%, so Taylor was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.3 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Jonathan Taylor or De'Von Achane?too close to call
Jonathan Taylor averaged 21.3 points per game in 2025 over 17 games; De'Von Achane averaged 20.2 over 16. Their medians were 16.9 and 17.8, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 15 of the same weeks; Taylor scored more in 7, Achane in 8. On usage, the half that carries forward: Taylor took 10.4% of his team's targets, Achane 18.8%, and they took 33% and 22% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 12% against 0%, so Achane was the steadier weekly hold. Achane changes quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa to Malik Willis, so his 2025 target pattern may not carry. A 1.1 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
De'Von Achane or James Cook?Achane by 2.4
De'Von Achane averaged 20.2 points per game in 2025 over 16 games; James Cook averaged 17.8 over 17. Their medians were 17.8 and 20.4, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 15 of the same weeks; Achane scored more in 8, Cook in 7. On usage, the half that carries forward: Achane took 18.8% of his team's targets, Cook 8.4%, and they took 22% and 28% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 0% against 12%, so Achane was the steadier weekly hold. Achane changes quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa to Malik Willis, so his 2025 target pattern may not carry.
James Cook or Chase Brown?too close to call
James Cook averaged 17.8 points per game in 2025 over 17 games; Chase Brown averaged 16.6 over 17. Their medians were 20.4 and 16.0. They both played in 16 of the same weeks; Cook scored more in 9, Brown in 7. On usage, the half that carries forward: Cook took 8.4% of his team's targets, Brown 14.5%, and they took 28% and 23% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 12% against 6%, so Brown was the steadier weekly hold. A 1.2 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
The close calls at WR
adjacent in 2025 scoring — the ones worth arguing aboutPuka Nacua or Jaxon Smith-Njigba?Nacua by 2.2
Puka Nacua averaged 23.4 points per game in 2025 over 16 games; Jaxon Smith-Njigba averaged 21.2 over 17. Their medians were 23.0 and 20.6. They both played in 16 of the same weeks; Nacua scored more in 10, Smith-Njigba in 6. On usage, the half that carries forward: Nacua took 28.6% of his team's targets, Smith-Njigba 35.8%, and they took 18% and 17% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 6% against 6%, so Smith-Njigba was the steadier weekly hold. For 2026 Smith-Njigba lost ground — new mouths: Rashid Shaheed.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Ja'Marr Chase?Smith-Njigba by 1.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba averaged 21.2 points per game in 2025 over 17 games; Ja'Marr Chase averaged 19.6 over 16. Their medians were 20.6 and 20.5. They both played in 15 of the same weeks; Smith-Njigba scored more in 8, Chase in 7. On usage, the half that carries forward: Smith-Njigba took 35.8% of his team's targets, Chase 30.5%, and they took 17% and 15% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 6% against 19%, so Smith-Njigba was the steadier weekly hold. For 2026 Smith-Njigba lost ground — new mouths: Rashid Shaheed.
Ja'Marr Chase or Amon-Ra St. Brown?too close to call
Ja'Marr Chase averaged 19.6 points per game in 2025 over 16 games; Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 19.1 over 17. Their medians were 20.5 and 18.0. They both played in 15 of the same weeks; Chase scored more in 6, Brown in 9. On usage, the half that carries forward: Chase took 30.5% of his team's targets, Brown 31.3%, and they took 15% and 20% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 19% against 12%, so Brown was the steadier weekly hold. For 2026 Brown gained ground — 15% of targets vacated. A 0.5 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Amon-Ra St. Brown or Rashee Rice?too close to call
Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 19.1 points per game in 2025 over 17 games; Rashee Rice averaged 17.9 over 8. Their medians were 18.0 and 20.9, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 7 of the same weeks; Brown scored more in 4, Rice in 3. On usage, the half that carries forward: Brown took 31.3% of his team's targets, Rice 14.2%, and they took 20% and 24% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 12% against 12%, so Rice was the steadier weekly hold. For 2026 Brown gained ground — 15% of targets vacated. For 2026 Rice gained ground — 32% of targets vacated (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquise Brown out). A 1.2 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Rashee Rice or George Pickens?too close to call
Rashee Rice averaged 17.9 points per game in 2025 over 8 games; George Pickens averaged 17.2 over 17. Their medians were 20.9 and 14.8. They both played in 8 of the same weeks; Rice scored more in 5, Pickens in 3. On usage, the half that carries forward: Rice took 14.2% of his team's targets, Pickens 22.6%, and they took 24% and 18% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 12% against 18%, so Rice was the steadier weekly hold. For 2026 Rice gained ground — 32% of targets vacated (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquise Brown out). A 0.7 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
George Pickens or Drake London?too close to call
George Pickens averaged 17.2 points per game in 2025 over 17 games; Drake London averaged 16.8 over 12. Their medians were 14.8 and 15.7, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 10 of the same weeks; Pickens scored more in 7, London in 3. On usage, the half that carries forward: Pickens took 22.6% of his team's targets, London 21.6%, and they took 18% and 21% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 18% against 25%, so Pickens was the steadier weekly hold. London changes quarterback, Michael Penix Jr. to Tua Tagovailoa, so his 2025 target pattern may not carry. A 0.4 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
The close calls at QB
adjacent in 2025 scoring — the ones worth arguing aboutJosh Allen or Joe Burrow?Allen by 1.7
Josh Allen averaged 22.8 points per game in 2025 over 16 games; Joe Burrow averaged 21.1 over 8. Their medians were 23.1 and 19.8. They both played in 7 of the same weeks; Allen scored more in 5, Burrow in 2. Bust rate 6% against 25%, so Allen was the steadier weekly hold. For 2026 Allen gained ground — new weapons: DJ Moore.
Joe Burrow or Drake Maye?too close to call
Joe Burrow averaged 21.1 points per game in 2025 over 8 games; Drake Maye averaged 20.7 over 17. Their medians were 19.8 and 20.5, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 7 of the same weeks; Burrow scored more in 2, Maye in 5. Bust rate 25% against 0%, so Maye was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.4 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Drake Maye or Matthew Stafford?too close to call
Drake Maye averaged 20.7 points per game in 2025 over 17 games; Matthew Stafford averaged 20.6 over 17. Their medians were 20.5 and 22.9, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 16 of the same weeks; Maye scored more in 7, Stafford in 9. Bust rate 0% against 0%, so Stafford was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.1 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Matthew Stafford or Patrick Mahomes?too close to call
Matthew Stafford averaged 20.6 points per game in 2025 over 17 games; Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 over 14. Their medians were 22.9 and 22.5. They both played in 13 of the same weeks; Stafford scored more in 7, Mahomes in 6. Bust rate 0% against 7%, so Stafford was the steadier weekly hold. For 2026 Mahomes lost ground — lost 32% of targets (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquise Brown out). A 0.2 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence?too close to call
Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 points per game in 2025 over 14 games; Trevor Lawrence averaged 19.9 over 17. Their medians were 22.5 and 19.2. They both played in 12 of the same weeks; Mahomes scored more in 8, Lawrence in 4. Bust rate 7% against 6%, so Lawrence was the steadier weekly hold. For 2026 Mahomes lost ground — lost 32% of targets (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquise Brown out). A 0.5 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Trevor Lawrence or Jayden Daniels?too close to call
Trevor Lawrence averaged 19.9 points per game in 2025 over 17 games; Jayden Daniels averaged 19.4 over 7. Their medians were 19.2 and 17.7. They both played in 7 of the same weeks; Lawrence scored more in 3, Daniels in 4. Bust rate 6% against 14%, so Lawrence was the steadier weekly hold. A 0.5 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
The close calls at TE
adjacent in 2025 scoring — the ones worth arguing aboutTrey McBride or George Kittle?McBride by 3.9
Trey McBride averaged 18.6 points per game in 2025 over 17 games; George Kittle averaged 14.7 over 11. Their medians were 16.5 and 13.8. They both played in 10 of the same weeks; McBride scored more in 8, Kittle in 2. On usage, the half that carries forward: McBride took 27.4% of his team's targets, Kittle 13.2%, and they took 21% and 26% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 6% against 27%, so McBride was the steadier weekly hold.
George Kittle or Brock Bowers?too close to call
George Kittle averaged 14.7 points per game in 2025 over 11 games; Brock Bowers averaged 14.7 over 12. Their medians were 13.8 and 12.8. They both played in 8 of the same weeks; Kittle scored more in 5, Bowers in 3. On usage, the half that carries forward: Kittle took 13.2% of his team's targets, Bowers 17.4%, and they took 26% and 24% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 27% against 8%, so Bowers was the steadier weekly hold. Bowers changes quarterback, Geno Smith to Kirk Cousins, so his 2025 target pattern may not carry. A 0.0 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Brock Bowers or Sam LaPorta?Bowers by 1.9
Brock Bowers averaged 14.7 points per game in 2025 over 12 games; Sam LaPorta averaged 12.8 over 9. Their medians were 12.8 and 10.3. They both played in 6 of the same weeks; Bowers scored more in 5, LaPorta in 1. On usage, the half that carries forward: Bowers took 17.4% of his team's targets, LaPorta 8.9%, and they took 24% and 17% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 8% against 44%, so Bowers was the steadier weekly hold. For 2026 LaPorta gained ground — 15% of targets vacated. Bowers changes quarterback, Geno Smith to Kirk Cousins, so his 2025 target pattern may not carry.
Sam LaPorta or Kyle Pitts?too close to call
Sam LaPorta averaged 12.8 points per game in 2025 over 9 games; Kyle Pitts averaged 12.4 over 17. Their medians were 10.3 and 11.8, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 8 of the same weeks; LaPorta scored more in 4, Pitts in 4. On usage, the half that carries forward: LaPorta took 8.9% of his team's targets, Pitts 22.8%, and they took 17% and 14% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 44% against 47%, so LaPorta was the steadier weekly hold. For 2026 LaPorta gained ground — 15% of targets vacated. Pitts changes quarterback, Michael Penix Jr. to Tua Tagovailoa, so his 2025 target pattern may not carry. A 0.4 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Kyle Pitts or Dallas Goedert?too close to call
Kyle Pitts averaged 12.4 points per game in 2025 over 17 games; Dallas Goedert averaged 12.3 over 15. Their medians were 11.8 and 10.9. They both played in 14 of the same weeks; Pitts scored more in 6, Goedert in 8. On usage, the half that carries forward: Pitts took 22.8% of his team's targets, Goedert 17.7%, and they took 14% and 36% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 47% against 27%, so Goedert was the steadier weekly hold. Pitts changes quarterback, Michael Penix Jr. to Tua Tagovailoa, so his 2025 target pattern may not carry. A 0.1 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Dallas Goedert or Harold Fannin Jr.?too close to call
Dallas Goedert averaged 12.3 points per game in 2025 over 15 games; Harold Fannin Jr. averaged 11.7 over 16. Their medians were 10.9 and 11.2, which points the other way — one of these seasons was carried by a handful of weeks. They both played in 15 of the same weeks; Goedert scored more in 4, Jr. in 11. On usage, the half that carries forward: Goedert took 17.7% of his team's targets, Jr. 20.5%, and they took 36% and 23% of their teams' touchdowns. Bust rate 27% against 25%, so Jr. was the steadier weekly hold. For 2026 Jr. gained ground — 26% of targets vacated (David Njoku out). Jr. changes quarterback, Shedeur Sanders to Deshaun Watson, so his 2025 target pattern may not carry. A 0.6 point gap across a season is about a quarter point a week: decide it on role, not on last year's average.
Per-game numbers are 2025 regular season. Boom is a top-12 weekly finish at the position, bust is outside the top 36. Role notes come from the 2026 transaction ledger. Nothing here is a projection — it is what happened, arranged so you can decide.