| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF) | @ LA | -150 (DraftKings) | 67% | 60% | +7.0 |
| 2 | Kyren Williams (RB, LA) | vs SF | -115 (FanDuel) | 58% | 54% | +4.5 |
| 3 | Davante Adams (WR, LA) | vs SF | +132 (BetRivers) | 53% | 43% | +9.9 |
| 4 | Blake Corum (RB, LA) | vs SF | +185 (FanDuel) | 43% | 35% | +7.9 |
| 5 | Mike Evans (WR, SF) | @ LA | +220 (FanDuel) | 38% | 31% | +6.8 |
| 6 | Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, SF) | @ LA | +400 (FanDuel) | 21% | 20% | +1.0 |
| 7 | Brock Purdy (QB, SF) | @ LA | +540 (BetRivers) | 21% | 16% | +5.4 |
| 8 | Puka Nacua (WR, LA) | vs SF | +130 (DraftKings) | 21% | 44% | -22.5* |
| 9 | George Kittle (TE, SF) | @ LA | +310 (FanDuel) | 19% | 24% | -5.4 |
| 10 | Jake Tonges (TE, SF) | @ LA | +800 (FanDuel) | 17% | 11% | +5.9 |
| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF) | @ LA | +500 (DraftKings) | 20.0% | 17% | +3.3 |
| 2 | Kyren Williams (RB, LA) | vs SF | +600 (Caesars) | 17.7% | 14% | +3.4 |
| 3 | Davante Adams (WR, LA) | vs SF | +800 (BetRivers) | 15.7% | 11% | +4.6 |
| 4 | Blake Corum (RB, LA) | vs SF | +1200 (ESPN BET) | 11.2% | 8% | +3.5 |
| 5 | Mike Evans (WR, SF) | @ LA | +1500 (ESPN BET) | 8.6% | 6% | +2.3 |
| 6 | Puka Nacua (WR, LA) | vs SF | +850 (Caesars) | 4.9% | 10% | -5.6* |
| 7 | Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, SF) | @ LA | +2000 (FanDuel) | 4.3% | 5% | -0.5* |
| 8 | Brock Purdy (QB, SF) | @ LA | +2600 (Caesars) | 4.3% | 4% | +0.6 |
| 9 | George Kittle (TE, SF) | @ LA | +1800 (DraftKings) | 3.8% | 5% | -1.5 |
| 10 | Jake Tonges (TE, SF) | @ LA | +4000 (FanDuel) | 3.4% | 2% | +1.0 |
By our model's probability that the player scores: forecast red-zone trips from the Vegas implied team total (r=0.39 — the strongest pregame signal we tested) × his share of red-zone touches, inside-5-weighted. Every player is checked against today's official depth chart — demoted or cut players are dropped no matter their 2025 role. Prices are the best available across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers and Bovada, from our own fetch. Edge = our probability minus the price's implied probability, in points. One documented blind spot, stated plainly: our formula prices TDs through red-zone touches, so it runs structurally LOW on deep-strike receivers and sneak QBs — a big negative edge on that archetype is mostly our model's gap, not a fade signal, and we print those in gray.
Christian McCaffrey is the most likely first scorer at 20.0% by our model, priced +500 at DraftKings — though books tax first-TD prices 10-20% past fair.
Christian McCaffrey (SF) — 67% by our model, the highest in this game.
Christian McCaffrey at -150 (DraftKings) is the strongest value; every row below names the best-paying book for that player.
full SF at LA preview — odds, quarter tendencies & props · week-1 TD rankings
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