Best of › 10 Best Anytime Touchdown Bets — NFL Week 1, 2026
10 Best Anytime Touchdown Bets — NFL Week 1, 2026
Ranked by modeled probability, not vibes: Vegas implied total → forecast red-zone trips (correlation 0.39 — the strongest pregame volume signal we tested) × each player's goal-line share. O.Hampton tops the board at 75%.
How we ranked them (the criteria)
- Red-zone trips forecast from the Vegas implied team total
(r=0.39 vs actual trips — beats every defensive stat we tested)
- Goal-line share — his slice of team touches inside the 5, weighted
(roles persist year to year; defenses don't)
- What we deliberately EXCLUDED: opponent red-zone defense. We tested
it: trips-allowed persistence 0.19, TD-rate-allowed 0.04 — noise. Every article
ranking by "vs the 28th-ranked red-zone defense" is selling a tested null.
The comparison
| # | Player | Game | Our P(TD) | Best price | Implied | Edge | RZ trips | GL share |
|---|
| 1 | O.Hampton (RB, LAC) | LAC vs ARI | 75% | -145 DraftKings | 59.2% | +15.8 | 5.6 | 40% |
| 2 | D.Henry (RB, BAL) | BAL @ IND | 72% | -180 DraftKings | 64.3% | +7.7 | 5.1 | 44% |
| 3 | C.McCaffrey (RB, SF) | SF @ LA | 67% | — | — | — | 4.2 | 47% |
| 4 | J.Williams (RB, DAL) | DAL @ NYG | 65% | -135 DraftKings | 57.4% | +7.6 | 4.8 | 38% |
| 5 | S.Barkley (RB, PHI) | PHI vs WAS | 65% | -115 DraftKings | 53.5% | +11.5 | 5.0 | 37% |
| 6 | A.Jeanty (RB, LV) | LV vs MIA | 64% | -130 DraftKings | 56.5% | +7.5 | 4.0 | 45% |
| 7 | J.Taylor (RB, IND) | IND vs BAL | 64% | -175 BetMGM | 63.6% | +0.4 | 4.2 | 42% |
| 8 | C.Brown (RB, CIN) | CIN vs TB | 64% | -120 FanDuel | 54.5% | +9.5 | 5.2 | 34% |
| 9 | J.Gibbs (RB, DET) | DET vs NO | 63% | -260 DraftKings | 72.2% | -9.2 | 5.4 | 30% |
| 10 | K.Williams (RB, LA) | LA vs SF | 58% | — | — | — | 4.9 | 31% |
Sunday's NFL games
111 priced picks across 13 games · CHI vs CAR · TB vs CIN · NO vs DET · BUF vs HOU · BAL vs IND · CLE vs JAX · ATL vs PIT · NYJ vs TEN · ARI vs LAC · MIA vs LV · GB vs MIN · WAS vs PHI · DAL vs NYG
| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|
| 1 | Omarion Hampton (RB, LAC) | vs ARI | -145 (DraftKings) | 75% | 59% | +15.8 |
| 2 | Derrick Henry (RB, BAL) | @ IND | -180 (DraftKings) | 72% | 64% | +7.7 |
| 3 | Javonte Williams (RB, DAL) | @ NYG | -135 (DraftKings) | 65% | 57% | +7.6 |
| 4 | Saquon Barkley (RB, PHI) | vs WAS | -115 (DraftKings) | 65% | 54% | +11.5 |
| 5 | Ashton Jeanty (RB, LV) | vs MIA | -130 (DraftKings) | 64% | 56% | +7.5 |
| 6 | Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND) | vs BAL | -175 (BetMGM) | 64% | 64% | +0.4 |
| 7 | Chase Brown (RB, CIN) | vs TB | -120 (FanDuel) | 64% | 54% | +9.5 |
| 8 | Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET) | vs NO | -260 (DraftKings) | 63% | 72% | -9.2 |
| 9 | Cam Skattebo (RB, NYG) | vs DAL | +115 (BetMGM) | 57% | 46% | +10.5 |
| 10 | Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT) | vs ATL | +140 (DraftKings) | 56% | 42% | +14.3 |
Monday Night Football
10 priced picks across 1 game · DEN vs KC
| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|
| 1 | Rashee Rice (WR, KC) | vs DEN | +175 (BetMGM) | 47% | 36% | +10.6 |
| 2 | RJ Harvey (RB, DEN) | @ KC | +300 (DraftKings) | 42% | 25% | +17.0 |
| 3 | J.K. Dobbins (RB, DEN) | @ KC | +175 (FanDuel) | 38% | 36% | +1.6 |
| 4 | Kenneth Walker III (RB, KC) | vs DEN | -120 (FanDuel) | 38% | 54% | -16.5 |
| 5 | Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC) | vs DEN | +650 (FanDuel) | 25% | 13% | +11.7 |
| 6 | Troy Franklin (WR, DEN) | @ KC | +1200 (FanDuel) | 24% | 8% | +16.3 |
| 7 | Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN) | @ KC | +240 (DraftKings) | 21% | 29% | -8.4* |
| 8 | Jaylen Waddle (WR, DEN) | @ KC | +235 (BetRivers) | 21% | 30% | -8.9* |
| 9 | Bo Nix (QB, DEN) | @ KC | +550 (FanDuel) | 21% | 15% | +5.6 |
| 10 | Travis Kelce (TE, KC) | vs DEN | +220 (BetMGM) | 19% | 31% | -12.2 |
Best available anytime-TD price across the books we track, captured 2026-09-13 16:57 UTC. Edge is our probability minus the price's implied probability — positive means the book is paying more than our model says it should.
The picks — pros and cons, honestly
Pros of this method: every term survived backtesting; the
probabilities are honest (1 − e^−λ, so no fake 90% locks).
Cons, stated plainly: the model runs structurally LOW on deep-strike
receivers (long TDs skip the red zone) and sneak-happy QBs — trust it most on
bell-cow RBs and possession TEs. Week-1 shares are 2025 roles projected forward.
Lines move; compare the percentages to your book's implied price before betting.
Not betting advice.
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