| # | Player | Game | Implied | RZ trips | GL share | P(TD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O.Hampton (RB, LAC) | LAC vs ARI | 28.5 | 5.6 | 40% | 75% |
| 2 | D.Henry (RB, BAL) | BAL @ IND | 26.5 | 5.1 | 44% | 72% |
| 3 | C.McCaffrey (RB, SF) | SF @ LA | 22.8 | 4.2 | 47% | 67% |
| 4 | J.Jacobs (RB, GB) | GB @ MIN | 23.0 | 4.2 | 46% | 67% |
| 5 | Z.Charbonnet (RB, SEA) | SEA vs NE | 24.0 | 4.5 | 42% | 66% |
| 6 | J.Williams (RB, DAL) | DAL @ NYG | 25.5 | 4.8 | 38% | 65% |
| 7 | S.Barkley (RB, PHI) | PHI vs WAS | 26.0 | 5.0 | 37% | 65% |
| 8 | A.Jeanty (RB, LV) | LV vs MIA | 22.2 | 4.0 | 45% | 64% |
| 9 | J.Taylor (RB, IND) | IND vs BAL | 23.0 | 4.2 | 42% | 64% |
| 10 | C.Brown (RB, CIN) | CIN vs TB | 27.0 | 5.2 | 34% | 64% |
Pros of this method: every term survived backtesting; the probabilities are honest (1 − e^−λ, so no fake 90% locks).
Cons, stated plainly: the model runs structurally LOW on deep-strike receivers (long TDs skip the red zone) and sneak-happy QBs — trust it most on bell-cow RBs and possession TEs. Week-1 shares are 2025 roles projected forward. Lines move; compare the percentages to your book's implied price before betting. Not betting advice.
Weekly