| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE) | @ SEA | +110 (Hard Rock) | 40% | 48% | -7.6 |
| 2 | Romeo Doubs (WR, NE) | @ SEA | +310 (DraftKings) | 25% | 24% | +0.6 |
| 3 | Hunter Henry (TE, NE) | @ SEA | +280 (FanDuel) | 22% | 26% | -4.3 |
| 4 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA) | vs NE | +140 (FanDuel) | 21% | 42% | -20.7* |
| 5 | Cooper Kupp (WR, SEA) | vs NE | +340 (BetMGM) | 20% | 23% | -2.7* |
| 6 | Drake Maye (QB, NE) | @ SEA | +430 (FanDuel) | 20% | 19% | +1.1 |
| 7 | Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA) | vs NE | +350 (Hard Rock) | 18% | 22% | -4.2* |
| 8 | A.J. Brown (WR, NE) | @ SEA | +170 (DraftKings) | 13% | 37% | -24.0* |
| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE) | @ SEA | +650 (Caesars) | 10.1% | 13% | -3.2 |
| 2 | Romeo Doubs (WR, NE) | @ SEA | +1800 (ESPN BET) | 5.6% | 5% | +0.3 |
| 3 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA) | vs NE | +800 (DraftKings) | 5.4% | 11% | -5.7* |
| 4 | Cooper Kupp (WR, SEA) | vs NE | +1600 (BetMGM) | 5.1% | 6% | -0.8* |
| 5 | Hunter Henry (TE, NE) | @ SEA | +1700 (FanDuel) | 4.7% | 6% | -0.9 |
| 6 | Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA) | vs NE | +1700 (FanDuel) | 4.7% | 6% | -0.9* |
| 7 | Drake Maye (QB, NE) | @ SEA | +2000 (DraftKings) | 4.3% | 5% | -0.5* |
| 8 | A.J. Brown (WR, NE) | @ SEA | +1000 (ESPN BET) | 2.7% | 9% | -6.4* |
By our model's probability that the player scores: forecast red-zone trips from the Vegas implied team total (r=0.39 — the strongest pregame signal we tested) × his share of red-zone touches, inside-5-weighted. Every player is checked against today's official depth chart — demoted or cut players are dropped no matter their 2025 role. Prices are the best available across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers and Bovada, from our own fetch. Edge = our probability minus the price's implied probability, in points. One documented blind spot, stated plainly: our formula prices TDs through red-zone touches, so it runs structurally LOW on deep-strike receivers and sneak QBs — a big negative edge on that archetype is mostly our model's gap, not a fade signal, and we print those in gray.
Rhamondre Stevenson is the most likely first scorer at 10.1% by our model, priced +650 at Caesars — though books tax first-TD prices 10-20% past fair.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) — 40% by our model, the highest in this game.
Rhamondre Stevenson at +110 (Hard Rock) is the strongest value; every row below names the best-paying book for that player.
full NE at SEA preview — odds, quarter tendencies & props · week-1 TD rankings
Weekly