Best Anytime TD Bet for CLE vs JAX — Week 1, 2026

Every priced scorer in this game

First touchdown — CLE vs JAX

The honesty note this market demands: our sequencing study found NO first-TD skill — first-TD shares are statistically identical to anytime shares (corr 0.74), and books price first-TD markets 10-20% past fair, the sequencing tax. The ranking below tells you who is MOST LIKELY to be first; it does not promise the price beats the tax, and when every edge prints red, believe the red.

How these picks are ranked

By our model's probability that the player scores: forecast red-zone trips from the Vegas implied team total (r=0.39 — the strongest pregame signal we tested) × his share of red-zone touches, inside-5-weighted. Every player is checked against today's official depth chart — demoted or cut players are dropped no matter their 2025 role. Prices are the best available across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers and Bovada, from our own fetch. Edge = our probability minus the price's implied probability, in points. One documented blind spot, stated plainly: our formula prices TDs through red-zone touches, so it runs structurally LOW on deep-strike receivers and sneak QBs — a big negative edge on that archetype is mostly our model's gap, not a fade signal, and we print those in gray.