| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saquon Barkley (RB, PHI) | vs WAS | -115 (DraftKings) | 65% | 54% | +11.5 |
| 2 | Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) | vs WAS | +130 (DraftKings) | 48% | 44% | +4.5 |
| 3 | Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI) | vs WAS | +230 (BetRivers) | 38% | 30% | +7.7 |
| 4 | Rachaad White (RB, WAS) | @ PHI | +250 (DraftKings) | 38% | 29% | +9.4 |
| 5 | Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS) | @ PHI | +280 (DraftKings) | 29% | 26% | +2.7 |
| 6 | DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI) | vs WAS | +190 (BetRivers) | 18% | 34% | -16.5* |
| 7 | Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS) | @ PHI | +285 (DraftKings) | 15% | 26% | -11.0* |
| 8 | Stefon Diggs (WR, WAS) | @ PHI | +400 (FanDuel) | 14% | 20% | -6.0* |
| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saquon Barkley (RB, PHI) | vs WAS | +500 (Caesars) | 22.0% | 17% | +5.3 |
| 2 | Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) | vs WAS | +750 (DraftKings) | 13.6% | 12% | +1.8 |
| 3 | Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI) | vs WAS | +1200 (ESPN BET) | 9.9% | 8% | +2.2 |
| 4 | Rachaad White (RB, WAS) | @ PHI | +1300 (Hard Rock) | 9.1% | 7% | +2.0 |
| 5 | Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS) | @ PHI | +1500 (ESPN BET) | 6.6% | 6% | +0.3 |
| 6 | DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI) | vs WAS | +1100 (ESPN BET) | 4.2% | 8% | -4.1* |
| 7 | Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS) | @ PHI | +1600 (DraftKings) | 3.1% | 6% | -2.8* |
| 8 | Stefon Diggs (WR, WAS) | @ PHI | +2250 (Hard Rock) | 2.9% | 4% | -1.4* |
By our model's probability that the player scores: forecast red-zone trips from the Vegas implied team total (r=0.39 — the strongest pregame signal we tested) × his share of red-zone touches, inside-5-weighted. Every player is checked against today's official depth chart — demoted or cut players are dropped no matter their 2025 role. Prices are the best available across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers and Bovada, from our own fetch. Edge = our probability minus the price's implied probability, in points. One documented blind spot, stated plainly: our formula prices TDs through red-zone touches, so it runs structurally LOW on deep-strike receivers and sneak QBs — a big negative edge on that archetype is mostly our model's gap, not a fade signal, and we print those in gray.
Saquon Barkley is the most likely first scorer at 22.0% by our model, priced +500 at Caesars — though books tax first-TD prices 10-20% past fair.
Saquon Barkley (PHI) — 65% by our model, the highest in this game.
Saquon Barkley at -115 (DraftKings) is the strongest value; every row below names the best-paying book for that player.
full WAS at PHI preview — odds, quarter tendencies & props · week-1 TD rankings
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