| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Mason (RB, MIN) | vs GB | +155 (DraftKings) | 36% | 39% | -3.2 |
| 2 | Aaron Jones (RB, MIN) | vs GB | +185 (DraftKings) | 33% | 35% | -2.1 |
| 3 | Jauan Jennings (WR, MIN) | vs GB | +390 (BetMGM) | 28% | 20% | +7.6 |
| 4 | Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN) | vs GB | +170 (DraftKings) | 27% | 37% | -10.0* |
| 5 | Jordan Addison (WR, MIN) | vs GB | +265 (DraftKings) | 19% | 27% | -8.4* |
| 6 | Kyler Murray (QB, MIN) | vs GB | +300 (DraftKings) | 18% | 25% | -7.0* |
| 7 | Christian Watson (WR, GB) | @ MIN | +195 (DraftKings) | 17% | 34% | -16.9* |
| 8 | Tucker Kraft (TE, GB) | @ MIN | +215 (DraftKings) | 14% | 32% | -17.7 |
| 9 | Jordan Love (QB, GB) | @ MIN | +900 (FanDuel) | 10% | 10% | +0.0 |
| 10 | Jayden Reed (WR, GB) | @ MIN | +300 (FanDuel) | 8% | 25% | -17.0* |
| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Mason (RB, MIN) | vs GB | +800 (Caesars) | 8.7% | 11% | -2.4 |
| 2 | Aaron Jones (RB, MIN) | vs GB | +850 (DraftKings) | 7.7% | 10% | -2.8 |
| 3 | Jauan Jennings (WR, MIN) | vs GB | +1800 (ESPN BET) | 6.4% | 5% | +1.1 |
| 4 | Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN) | vs GB | +1000 (ESPN BET) | 6.2% | 9% | -2.9* |
| 5 | Christian Watson (WR, GB) | @ MIN | +1300 (ESPN BET) | 4.3% | 7% | -2.8* |
| 6 | Jordan Addison (WR, MIN) | vs GB | +1400 (DraftKings) | 4.2% | 7% | -2.5* |
| 7 | Kyler Murray (QB, MIN) | vs GB | +1500 (ESPN BET) | 3.9% | 6% | -2.4* |
| 8 | Tucker Kraft (TE, GB) | @ MIN | +1400 (ESPN BET) | 3.6% | 7% | -3.1 |
| 9 | Jordan Love (QB, GB) | @ MIN | +4000 (Hard Rock) | 2.6% | 2% | +0.2 |
| 10 | Jayden Reed (WR, GB) | @ MIN | +1800 (ESPN BET) | 1.9% | 5% | -3.4* |
By our model's probability that the player scores: forecast red-zone trips from the Vegas implied team total (r=0.39 — the strongest pregame signal we tested) × his share of red-zone touches, inside-5-weighted. Every player is checked against today's official depth chart — demoted or cut players are dropped no matter their 2025 role. Prices are the best available across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers and Bovada, from our own fetch. Edge = our probability minus the price's implied probability, in points. One documented blind spot, stated plainly: our formula prices TDs through red-zone touches, so it runs structurally LOW on deep-strike receivers and sneak QBs — a big negative edge on that archetype is mostly our model's gap, not a fade signal, and we print those in gray.
Jordan Mason is the most likely first scorer at 8.7% by our model, priced +800 at Caesars — though books tax first-TD prices 10-20% past fair.
Jordan Mason (MIN) — 36% by our model, the highest in this game.
Jordan Mason at +155 (DraftKings) is the strongest value; every row below names the best-paying book for that player.
full GB at MIN preview — odds, quarter tendencies & props · week-1 TD rankings
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