| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rashee Rice (WR, KC) | vs DEN | +175 (BetMGM) | 47% | 36% | +10.6 |
| 2 | RJ Harvey (RB, DEN) | @ KC | +300 (DraftKings) | 42% | 25% | +17.0 |
| 3 | J.K. Dobbins (RB, DEN) | @ KC | +175 (FanDuel) | 38% | 36% | +1.6 |
| 4 | Kenneth Walker III (RB, KC) | vs DEN | -120 (FanDuel) | 38% | 54% | -16.5 |
| 5 | Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC) | vs DEN | +650 (FanDuel) | 25% | 13% | +11.7 |
| 6 | Troy Franklin (WR, DEN) | @ KC | +1200 (FanDuel) | 24% | 8% | +16.3 |
| 7 | Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN) | @ KC | +240 (DraftKings) | 21% | 29% | -8.4* |
| 8 | Jaylen Waddle (WR, DEN) | @ KC | +235 (BetRivers) | 21% | 30% | -8.9* |
| 9 | Bo Nix (QB, DEN) | @ KC | +550 (FanDuel) | 21% | 15% | +5.6 |
| 10 | Travis Kelce (TE, KC) | vs DEN | +220 (BetMGM) | 19% | 31% | -12.2 |
| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rashee Rice (WR, KC) | vs DEN | +900 (FanDuel) | 15.5% | 10% | +5.5 |
| 2 | RJ Harvey (RB, DEN) | @ KC | +1400 (ESPN BET) | 11.8% | 7% | +5.1 |
| 3 | Kenneth Walker III (RB, KC) | vs DEN | +500 (FanDuel) | 11.4% | 17% | -5.3 |
| 4 | J.K. Dobbins (RB, DEN) | @ KC | +900 (DraftKings) | 10.3% | 10% | +0.3 |
| 5 | Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC) | vs DEN | +4000 (DraftKings) | 6.8% | 2% | +4.4 |
| 6 | Troy Franklin (WR, DEN) | @ KC | +5500 (DraftKings) | 5.8% | 2% | +4.0 |
| 7 | Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN) | @ KC | +1400 (ESPN BET) | 5.2% | 7% | -1.5* |
| 8 | Jaylen Waddle (WR, DEN) | @ KC | +1200 (ESPN BET) | 5.2% | 8% | -2.5* |
| 9 | Bo Nix (QB, DEN) | @ KC | +2500 (Hard Rock) | 4.9% | 4% | +1.1 |
| 10 | Travis Kelce (TE, KC) | vs DEN | +1200 (ESPN BET) | 4.9% | 8% | -2.8 |
By our model's probability that the player scores: forecast red-zone trips from the Vegas implied team total (r=0.39 — the strongest pregame signal we tested) × his share of red-zone touches, inside-5-weighted. Every player is checked against today's official depth chart — demoted or cut players are dropped no matter their 2025 role. Prices are the best available across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers and Bovada, from our own fetch. Edge = our probability minus the price's implied probability, in points. One documented blind spot, stated plainly: our formula prices TDs through red-zone touches, so it runs structurally LOW on deep-strike receivers and sneak QBs — a big negative edge on that archetype is mostly our model's gap, not a fade signal, and we print those in gray.
Rashee Rice is the most likely first scorer at 15.5% by our model, priced +900 at FanDuel — though books tax first-TD prices 10-20% past fair.
Rashee Rice (KC) — 47% by our model, the highest in this game.
Rashee Rice at +175 (BetMGM) is the strongest value; every row below names the best-paying book for that player.
full DEN at KC preview — odds, quarter tendencies & props · week-1 TD rankings
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