| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D'Andre Swift (RB, CHI) | @ CAR | -115 (DraftKings) | 51% | 54% | -2.5 |
| 2 | Kyle Monangai (RB, CHI) | @ CAR | +240 (FanDuel) | 46% | 29% | +16.6 |
| 3 | Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR) | vs CHI | +135 (FanDuel) | 33% | 43% | -9.6 |
| 4 | Rome Odunze (WR, CHI) | @ CAR | +250 (BetRivers) | 27% | 29% | -1.6* |
| 5 | Colston Loveland (TE, CHI) | @ CAR | +190 (BetRivers) | 22% | 34% | -12.5 |
| 6 | Jalen Coker (WR, CAR) | vs CHI | +300 (Hard Rock) | 20% | 25% | -5.0* |
| 7 | Tetairoa McMillan (WR, CAR) | vs CHI | +175 (DraftKings) | 19% | 36% | -17.4* |
| 8 | Caleb Williams (QB, CHI) | @ CAR | +500 (FanDuel) | 18% | 17% | +1.3 |
| 9 | Bryce Young (QB, CAR) | vs CHI | +475 (BetRivers) | 13% | 17% | -4.4* |
| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D'Andre Swift (RB, CHI) | @ CAR | +500 (FanDuel) | 16.4% | 17% | -0.3 |
| 2 | Kyle Monangai (RB, CHI) | @ CAR | +1400 (ESPN BET) | 14.4% | 7% | +7.7 |
| 3 | Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR) | vs CHI | +850 (Caesars) | 7.9% | 10% | -2.6 |
| 4 | Rome Odunze (WR, CHI) | @ CAR | +1400 (BetRivers) | 7.2% | 7% | +0.5 |
| 5 | Colston Loveland (TE, CHI) | @ CAR | +1200 (ESPN BET) | 5.8% | 8% | -1.9 |
| 6 | Jalen Coker (WR, CAR) | vs CHI | +2000 (Hard Rock) | 4.5% | 5% | -0.3* |
| 7 | Caleb Williams (QB, CHI) | @ CAR | +2500 (Hard Rock) | 4.4% | 4% | +0.6 |
| 8 | Tetairoa McMillan (WR, CAR) | vs CHI | +1200 (DraftKings) | 4.3% | 8% | -3.4* |
| 9 | Bryce Young (QB, CAR) | vs CHI | +3000 (Hard Rock) | 2.8% | 3% | -0.4* |
By our model's probability that the player scores: forecast red-zone trips from the Vegas implied team total (r=0.39 — the strongest pregame signal we tested) × his share of red-zone touches, inside-5-weighted. Every player is checked against today's official depth chart — demoted or cut players are dropped no matter their 2025 role. Prices are the best available across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers and Bovada, from our own fetch. Edge = our probability minus the price's implied probability, in points. One documented blind spot, stated plainly: our formula prices TDs through red-zone touches, so it runs structurally LOW on deep-strike receivers and sneak QBs — a big negative edge on that archetype is mostly our model's gap, not a fade signal, and we print those in gray.
D'Andre Swift is the most likely first scorer at 16.4% by our model, priced +500 at FanDuel — though books tax first-TD prices 10-20% past fair.
D'Andre Swift (CHI) — 51% by our model, the highest in this game.
D'Andre Swift at -115 (DraftKings) is the strongest value; every row below names the best-paying book for that player.
full CHI at CAR preview — odds, quarter tendencies & props · week-1 TD rankings
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