| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen (QB, BUF) | @ HOU | +136 (Caesars) | 54% | 42% | +11.6 |
| 2 | David Montgomery (RB, HOU) | vs BUF | +105 (BetMGM) | 48% | 49% | -0.8 |
| 3 | James Cook (RB, BUF) | @ HOU | +105 (FanDuel) | 48% | 49% | -0.8 |
| 4 | Woody Marks (RB, HOU) | vs BUF | +265 (DraftKings) | 43% | 27% | +15.6 |
| 5 | Nico Collins (WR, HOU) | vs BUF | +160 (FanDuel) | 28% | 38% | -10.5* |
| 6 | Keon Coleman (WR, BUF) | @ HOU | +625 (Caesars) | 22% | 14% | +8.2 |
| 7 | DJ Moore (WR, BUF) | @ HOU | +280 (BetRivers) | 19% | 26% | -7.3* |
| 8 | Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU) | vs BUF | +320 (FanDuel) | 19% | 24% | -4.8 |
| 9 | Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF) | @ HOU | +360 (FanDuel) | 15% | 22% | -6.7* |
| 10 | C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU) | vs BUF | +1100 (DraftKings) | 11% | 8% | +2.7 |
| 11 | Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF) | @ HOU | +340 (FanDuel) | 11% | 23% | -11.7 |
| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen (QB, BUF) | @ HOU | +750 (FanDuel) | 17.8% | 12% | +6.0 |
| 2 | James Cook (RB, BUF) | @ HOU | +650 (FanDuel) | 15.3% | 13% | +2.0 |
| 3 | David Montgomery (RB, HOU) | vs BUF | +575 (BetMGM) | 12.4% | 15% | -2.4 |
| 4 | Woody Marks (RB, HOU) | vs BUF | +1300 (DraftKings) | 10.5% | 7% | +3.4 |
| 5 | Nico Collins (WR, HOU) | vs BUF | +1000 (Caesars) | 6.0% | 9% | -3.1* |
| 6 | Keon Coleman (WR, BUF) | @ HOU | +3000 (Hard Rock) | 5.8% | 3% | +2.6 |
| 7 | DJ Moore (WR, BUF) | @ HOU | +1500 (ESPN BET) | 5.1% | 6% | -1.2* |
| 8 | Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU) | vs BUF | +1700 (Caesars) | 3.9% | 6% | -1.7 |
| 9 | Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF) | @ HOU | +2000 (Hard Rock) | 3.7% | 5% | -1.1* |
| 10 | Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF) | @ HOU | +1800 (FanDuel) | 2.5% | 5% | -2.8 |
| 11 | C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU) | vs BUF | +4000 (Hard Rock) | 2.3% | 2% | -0.1* |
By our model's probability that the player scores: forecast red-zone trips from the Vegas implied team total (r=0.39 — the strongest pregame signal we tested) × his share of red-zone touches, inside-5-weighted. Every player is checked against today's official depth chart — demoted or cut players are dropped no matter their 2025 role. Prices are the best available across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers and Bovada, from our own fetch. Edge = our probability minus the price's implied probability, in points. One documented blind spot, stated plainly: our formula prices TDs through red-zone touches, so it runs structurally LOW on deep-strike receivers and sneak QBs — a big negative edge on that archetype is mostly our model's gap, not a fade signal, and we print those in gray.
Josh Allen is the most likely first scorer at 17.8% by our model, priced +750 at FanDuel — though books tax first-TD prices 10-20% past fair.
Josh Allen (BUF) — 54% by our model, the highest in this game.
Josh Allen at +136 (Caesars) is the strongest value; every row below names the best-paying book for that player.
full BUF at HOU preview — odds, quarter tendencies & props · week-1 TD rankings
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