| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry (RB, BAL) | @ IND | -180 (DraftKings) | 72% | 64% | +7.7 |
| 2 | Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND) | vs BAL | -175 (BetMGM) | 64% | 64% | +0.4 |
| 3 | Mark Andrews (TE, BAL) | @ IND | +185 (BetMGM) | 35% | 35% | -0.1 |
| 4 | Tyler Warren (TE, IND) | vs BAL | +230 (BetRivers) | 31% | 30% | +0.7 |
| 5 | Daniel Jones (QB, IND) | vs BAL | +450 (BetMGM) | 29% | 18% | +10.8 |
| 6 | Keenan Allen (WR, IND) | vs BAL | +375 (BetMGM) | 20% | 21% | -1.1* |
| 7 | Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) | @ IND | +270 (FanDuel) | 17% | 27% | -10.0* |
| 8 | Zay Flowers (WR, BAL) | @ IND | +170 (FanDuel) | 14% | 37% | -23.0* |
| 9 | Josh Downs (WR, IND) | vs BAL | +290 (FanDuel) | 13% | 26% | -12.6* |
| 10 | Alec Pierce (WR, IND) | vs BAL | +350 (DraftKings) | 9% | 22% | -13.2* |
| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry (RB, BAL) | @ IND | +425 (Caesars) | 26.3% | 19% | +7.3 |
| 2 | Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND) | vs BAL | +425 (ESPN BET) | 17.0% | 19% | -2.0 |
| 3 | Mark Andrews (TE, BAL) | @ IND | +1300 (ESPN BET) | 8.8% | 7% | +1.7 |
| 4 | Tyler Warren (TE, IND) | vs BAL | +1400 (ESPN BET) | 6.2% | 7% | -0.5 |
| 5 | Daniel Jones (QB, IND) | vs BAL | +2500 (Hard Rock) | 5.7% | 4% | +1.9 |
| 6 | Keenan Allen (WR, IND) | vs BAL | +2250 (Hard Rock) | 3.7% | 4% | -0.6* |
| 7 | Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) | @ IND | +1500 (FanDuel) | 3.7% | 6% | -2.5* |
| 8 | Zay Flowers (WR, BAL) | @ IND | +1200 (ESPN BET) | 3.3% | 8% | -4.4* |
| 9 | Josh Downs (WR, IND) | vs BAL | +1800 (ESPN BET) | 2.3% | 5% | -3.0* |
| 10 | Alec Pierce (WR, IND) | vs BAL | +2000 (Hard Rock) | 1.5% | 5% | -3.3* |
By our model's probability that the player scores: forecast red-zone trips from the Vegas implied team total (r=0.39 — the strongest pregame signal we tested) × his share of red-zone touches, inside-5-weighted. Every player is checked against today's official depth chart — demoted or cut players are dropped no matter their 2025 role. Prices are the best available across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers and Bovada, from our own fetch. Edge = our probability minus the price's implied probability, in points. One documented blind spot, stated plainly: our formula prices TDs through red-zone touches, so it runs structurally LOW on deep-strike receivers and sneak QBs — a big negative edge on that archetype is mostly our model's gap, not a fade signal, and we print those in gray.
Derrick Henry is the most likely first scorer at 26.3% by our model, priced +425 at Caesars — though books tax first-TD prices 10-20% past fair.
Derrick Henry (BAL) — 72% by our model, the highest in this game.
Derrick Henry at -180 (DraftKings) is the strongest value; every row below names the best-paying book for that player.
full BAL at IND preview — odds, quarter tendencies & props · week-1 TD rankings
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