| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT) | vs ATL | +140 (DraftKings) | 56% | 42% | +14.3 |
| 2 | Rico Dowdle (RB, PIT) | vs ATL | +135 (FanDuel) | 51% | 43% | +8.4 |
| 3 | Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL) | @ PIT | -120 (FanDuel) | 48% | 54% | -6.5 |
| 4 | Drake London (WR, ATL) | @ PIT | +280 (DraftKings) | 32% | 26% | +5.7 |
| 5 | DK Metcalf (WR, PIT) | vs ATL | +190 (FanDuel) | 26% | 34% | -8.5* |
| 6 | Michael Pittman (WR, PIT) | vs ATL | +250 (BetMGM) | 21% | 29% | -7.6* |
| 7 | Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL) | @ PIT | +400 (DraftKings) | 14% | 20% | -6.0 |
| 8 | Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT) | vs ATL | +400 (DraftKings) | 12% | 20% | -8.0 |
| 9 | Aaron Rodgers (QB, PIT) | vs ATL | +1700 (BetRivers) | 8% | 6% | +2.4 |
| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT) | vs ATL | +625 (Caesars) | 19.4% | 14% | +5.6 |
| 2 | Rico Dowdle (RB, PIT) | vs ATL | +700 (DraftKings) | 16.8% | 12% | +4.3 |
| 3 | Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL) | @ PIT | +500 (FanDuel) | 14.4% | 17% | -2.3 |
| 4 | Drake London (WR, ATL) | @ PIT | +1400 (FanDuel) | 8.4% | 7% | +1.7 |
| 5 | DK Metcalf (WR, PIT) | vs ATL | +1000 (DraftKings) | 7.1% | 9% | -2.0* |
| 6 | Michael Pittman (WR, PIT) | vs ATL | +1100 (DraftKings) | 5.7% | 8% | -2.6* |
| 7 | Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL) | @ PIT | +2000 (Hard Rock) | 3.3% | 5% | -1.5 |
| 8 | Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT) | vs ATL | +1800 (Caesars) | 3.1% | 5% | -2.2 |
| 9 | Aaron Rodgers (QB, PIT) | vs ATL | +6600 (BetRivers) | 1.9% | 2% | +0.4 |
By our model's probability that the player scores: forecast red-zone trips from the Vegas implied team total (r=0.39 — the strongest pregame signal we tested) × his share of red-zone touches, inside-5-weighted. Every player is checked against today's official depth chart — demoted or cut players are dropped no matter their 2025 role. Prices are the best available across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers and Bovada, from our own fetch. Edge = our probability minus the price's implied probability, in points. One documented blind spot, stated plainly: our formula prices TDs through red-zone touches, so it runs structurally LOW on deep-strike receivers and sneak QBs — a big negative edge on that archetype is mostly our model's gap, not a fade signal, and we print those in gray.
Jaylen Warren is the most likely first scorer at 19.4% by our model, priced +625 at Caesars — though books tax first-TD prices 10-20% past fair.
Jaylen Warren (PIT) — 56% by our model, the highest in this game.
Jaylen Warren at +140 (DraftKings) is the strongest value; every row below names the best-paying book for that player.
full ATL at PIT preview — odds, quarter tendencies & props · week-1 TD rankings
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