| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omarion Hampton (RB, LAC) | vs ARI | -145 (DraftKings) | 75% | 59% | +15.8 |
| 2 | Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) | vs ARI | +450 (FanDuel) | 28% | 18% | +9.8 |
| 3 | Ladd McConkey (WR, LAC) | vs ARI | +140 (BetMGM) | 28% | 42% | -13.7* |
| 4 | Trey McBride (TE, ARI) | @ LAC | +200 (FanDuel) | 26% | 33% | -7.3 |
| 5 | Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC) | vs ARI | +160 (BetRivers) | 25% | 38% | -13.5* |
| 6 | David Njoku (TE, LAC) | vs ARI | +550 (DraftKings) | 19% | 15% | +3.6 |
| 7 | Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, ARI) | @ LAC | +265 (DraftKings) | 17% | 27% | -10.4* |
| 8 | Jacoby Brissett (QB, ARI) | @ LAC | +1000 (Caesars) | 10% | 9% | +0.9 |
| 9 | Michael Wilson (WR, ARI) | @ LAC | +330 (FanDuel) | 7% | 23% | -16.3* |
| # | Player | Game | Best price | Our model | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omarion Hampton (RB, LAC) | vs ARI | +450 (ESPN BET) | 26.5% | 18% | +8.3 |
| 2 | Trey McBride (TE, ARI) | @ LAC | +1600 (DraftKings) | 7.4% | 6% | +1.5 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) | vs ARI | +2250 (Hard Rock) | 6.4% | 4% | +2.1 |
| 4 | Ladd McConkey (WR, LAC) | vs ARI | +800 (Caesars) | 6.4% | 11% | -4.7* |
| 5 | Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC) | vs ARI | +950 (BetMGM) | 5.6% | 10% | -3.9* |
| 6 | Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, ARI) | @ LAC | +2000 (Hard Rock) | 4.7% | 5% | -0.1* |
| 7 | David Njoku (TE, LAC) | vs ARI | +2500 (Hard Rock) | 4.1% | 4% | +0.3 |
| 8 | Jacoby Brissett (QB, ARI) | @ LAC | +5000 (Hard Rock) | 2.5% | 2% | +0.5 |
| 9 | Michael Wilson (WR, ARI) | @ LAC | +2250 (Hard Rock) | 1.7% | 4% | -2.6* |
By our model's probability that the player scores: forecast red-zone trips from the Vegas implied team total (r=0.39 — the strongest pregame signal we tested) × his share of red-zone touches, inside-5-weighted. Every player is checked against today's official depth chart — demoted or cut players are dropped no matter their 2025 role. Prices are the best available across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers and Bovada, from our own fetch. Edge = our probability minus the price's implied probability, in points. One documented blind spot, stated plainly: our formula prices TDs through red-zone touches, so it runs structurally LOW on deep-strike receivers and sneak QBs — a big negative edge on that archetype is mostly our model's gap, not a fade signal, and we print those in gray.
Omarion Hampton is the most likely first scorer at 26.5% by our model, priced +450 at ESPN BET — though books tax first-TD prices 10-20% past fair.
Omarion Hampton (LAC) — 75% by our model, the highest in this game.
Omarion Hampton at -145 (DraftKings) is the strongest value; every row below names the best-paying book for that player.
full ARI at LAC preview — odds, quarter tendencies & props · week-1 TD rankings
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