Late-round players (outside our top 48 overall) who can win
you a week — and can just as easily zero. The criteria, stated: a boom
rate of 20%+ (weeks at 15+ points), a bust rate of 25%+ (weeks under 8), and a
weekly ceiling of 12+ — the exact volatility profile you WANT late (a boring
9-point floor player can't change your season; these can). Sorted by ceiling.
Check ☐ as they're drafted.
✓
Pos
Player
Team
PPG
Ceiling
Boom%
Bust%
Role
☐
TE
George Kittle
SF
14.7
23.1
36%
27%
—
☐
WR
A.J. Brown
NE
14.7
20.7
40%
27%
—
☐
QB
Tyler Shough
NO
14.4
20.1
64%
27%
—
☐
WR
Christian Watson
GB
13.2
20.0
40%
40%
▲
☐
WR
Michael Wilson
ARI
13.0
19.9
35%
41%
—
☐
RB
RJ Harvey
DEN
12.2
19.8
41%
47%
—
☐
RB
Kenny Gainwell
TB
13.0
19.6
41%
47%
▲
☐
QB
Sam Darnold
SEA
13.8
19.5
53%
29%
▲
☐
WR
Michael Pittman
PIT
11.9
19.3
41%
41%
—
☐
WR
Garrett Wilson 🏥
NYJ
14.2
19.1
57%
29%
▲
☐
WR
Jameson Williams
DET
12.9
18.8
47%
41%
▲
☐
WR
Jalen McMillan 🏥
TB
9.7
18.4
25%
75%
—
☐
WR
Jaylen Waddle
DEN
12.1
17.9
38%
38%
—
☐
WR
Parker Washington
JAX
11.5
17.9
38%
38%
—
☐
RB
Kimani Vidal
LAC
9.1
17.8
31%
62%
—
☐
RB
Rhamondre Stevenson
NE
12.8
17.6
36%
43%
—
☐
WR
Alec Pierce
IND
12.2
17.6
33%
33%
▲
☐
WR
Wan'Dale Robinson
TEN
13.6
17.4
38%
31%
▲
☐
WR
Rome Odunze
CHI
12.2
17.3
50%
42%
▲
☐
RB
Kenneth Walker III
KC
11.3
17.3
29%
35%
—
☐
RB
Breece Hall
NYJ
13.0
16.8
44%
31%
▲
☐
TE
Dallas Goedert
PHI
12.3
16.8
33%
27%
—
☐
TE
Jake Ferguson
DAL
11.1
16.8
29%
35%
—
☐
TE
Sam LaPorta 🏥
DET
12.8
16.5
33%
44%
▲
☐
RB
Quinshon Judkins
CLE
12.1
16.4
36%
29%
—
Ceiling = his real 75th-percentile week in 2025. Boom = share
of weeks ≥15 PPR points; bust = share under 8. ▲/▼ = 2026 role outlook
from the offseason movement ledger. Volatility is the FEATURE here, not the bug
— pair these with stable-floor starters. weeklyheater.com
weeklyheater.com/print — free sheets, updated weekly in season · quarter-by-quarter data at weeklyheater.com
Methodology: computed from nflverse
play-by-play; a quarter's yards are the yards gained on plays snapped in
that quarter. Averages use each player's games played, not team games.
Updated 2026-07-28.
Weekly