Boom-or-Bust Sleepers 2026 — Printable Late-Round Upside Sheet

Late-round players (outside our top 48 overall) who can win you a week — and can just as easily zero. The criteria, stated: a boom rate of 20%+ (weeks at 15+ points), a bust rate of 25%+ (weeks under 8), and a weekly ceiling of 12+ — the exact volatility profile you WANT late (a boring 9-point floor player can't change your season; these can). Sorted by ceiling. Check ☐ as they're drafted.

✓	Pos	Player	Team	PPG	Ceiling	Boom%	Bust%	Role
☐	WR	Malik Nabers †	NYG	14.6	23.2	40%	40%	—
☐	TE	George Kittle †	SF	15.1	23.1	75%	25%	—
☐	WR	DJ Moore †	BUF	9.9	21.0	25%	50%	—
☐	WR	Michael Wilson †	ARI	15.4	20.9	50%	25%	—
☐	QB	Sam Darnold †	SEA	14.1	20.0	33%	33%	—
☐	WR	Stefon Diggs †	WAS	13.1	19.5	50%	25%	—
☐	WR	Jameson Williams †	DET	13.0	18.6	25%	25%	—
☐	WR	Jaylen Waddle †	DEN	11.5	18.1	25%	50%	—
☐	WR	Deebo Samuel Sr. †	SF	11.0	18.0	50%	50%	—
☐	TE	Dallas Goedert †	PHI	12.3	17.8	33%	33%	—
☐	TE	Darren Waller †	CAR	9.9	17.7	25%	50%	—
☐	RB	Omarion Hampton †	LAC	13.9	17.5	25%	25%	—
☐	RB	Kyle Monangai †	CHI	11.4	17.4	50%	50%	—
☐	TE	Sam LaPorta †	DET	12.6	17.2	50%	25%	—
☐	RB	Bucky Irving †	TB	14.6	17.1	40%	40%	—
☐	TE	Dalton Kincaid †	BUF	10.9	17.0	50%	50%	—
☐	WR	Tetairoa McMillan †	CAR	14.4	16.9	50%	25%	—
☐	RB	Rhamondre Stevenson †	NE	12.6	16.8	40%	40%	—
☐	WR	Justin Jefferson †	MIN	11.9	16.7	50%	25%	—
☐	TE	Tucker Kraft †	GB	12.7	16.5	20%	40%	—
☐	WR	DK Metcalf †	PIT	11.8	16.5	20%	40%	—
☐	QB	Kyler Murray †	MIN	13.2	16.1	25%	25%	—
☐	WR	Rome Odunze †	CHI	11.2	15.7	20%	80%	—
☐	WR	Ladd McConkey †	LAC	10.9	15.7	25%	50%	—
☐	TE	Travis Kelce †	KC	12.2	15.5	25%	25%	—

Ceiling = his real 75th-percentile week in 2025. Boom = share of weeks ≥15 PPR points; bust = share under 8. ▲/▼ = 2026 role outlook from the offseason movement ledger. Volatility is the FEATURE here, not the bug — pair these with stable-floor starters. weeklyheater.com

weeklyheater.com/print — free sheets, updated weekly in season · quarter-by-quarter data at weeklyheater.com

full cheat sheet · movers sheet

Methodology: boom and bust rates are the share of a player's games above and below the thresholds shown, from nflverse weekly stats. Updated 2026-10-29.